SEVEN SUCCESSFUL PREMONITIONS, MISSING ONE: DONALD TRUMP

                                    Published by El Nuevo Herald on May 22, 2016

Sometimes the human being has the vision to anticipate the future, imagining a priori facts that actually happened later. Thus we talk about seven visions that really happened then, and a bad omen that has not yet happened: Trump.

▪ On April 3, 1993 we published a letter in the Herald where we asked: "What will do Clinton with the wave of immigrants keep coming?" Today we see the settlement of comprehensive immigration reform is considered a priority in the world policy.

▪ On August 18, 2000 I wrote to the publisher of the Venezuelan newspaper El Universal: "We have tireless repeated to the Venezuelan people that Chavez in Venezuela intends to establish an equal or worse regime that exists in Cuba". Elapsed time, we see that is exactly what has happened in Venezuela.

▪ On July 2, 2003, we wrote in the Herald: "All economic processes are decreasing to the minimum allowable before falling into a crisis with unforeseeable consequences."Later, in 2009 we really suffered a severe economic crisis, the biggest since World War II.

▪ On January 27, 2012, I wrote to the Herald: "The trend in previous elections will continue. Let aimed toward a reelection of President Obama. " Indeed, the President was reelected in November 2012.

▪ In the September 2013 edition of The Times Newspaper I predicted: "President Maduro usurps power with a firm purpose. It aims to plunder what little remains of the National Treasury ".

Today it is known the disastrous economic situation in Venezuela.

▪ On November 12, 2014, during a forum held in The Miami Herald, I asked the CEO of Carnival Cruise Line, Arnold Donald: "If things were to change in Cuba, Carnival will sail to Cuban ports? His cheerful affirmative answer seemed a preamble of what soon happened.

On December 17 of that year, and when neither knew nor suspected anything,  relations with Cuba was restored and Carnival was the first company that received permission to sail to the island.

▪ On November 13, 2014, during a conference at the Miami Dade College, I asked the adviser to the White House for the Western Hemisphere, Dan Restrepo: "If something were to happen in Cuba, this administration is willing to meet with opponents? We know what happened. President Obama actually met with opposition during his recent visit to Cuba.

As we see these seven premonitions, among others, they have really accomplished. It is missing a very important one for the future of the United States and it is related to Donald Trump.

In my Trump, China and Cuba column published in El Nuevo Herald on March 23, 2016, specific: "The US presidential elections are usually defined by a narrow margin of two to three million votes. If only 57% of Hispanics who are against Trump actually vote,  Trump already lost to Hillary "

If for any reason this prediction would end up failing and Trump were to become president, political violence could increase as a direct result of the now famous Trump fact, as I emphasize in an interview with the Herald on May 16, 2016: "Things not only  will be worsen, but can be dangerous. "

Actually, if there is a premonition that we would not guess it is this. On the contrary, we wish all the good to the great American nation, the birthplace of our ancestors.

Far from divisions, rancor or discrimination of any kind.

Benjamin F. DeYurre

Economist and journalist.

TECHNOLOGY IN BUSINESS AND FUSIONS, GENERATE UNEMPLOYMENT

                                              Published by Los Tiempos Newspaper, April 2016 Edition

We will propose the following paradox: "While life is easier to human beings, less opportunity has people to work" This is valid, mostly in urban areas of developed countries.

It seems that this axiom is true, since history shows us the time that inventions have brought us welfare but have left us without work. However, there is some rant, as we see below.

Certain inventions generated many unemployed in one area but created jobs in others. One of the prime examples is the ancient invention of the wheel, which eliminated the messengers and guides of long journeys but revolutionized the world by creating countless jobs in pottery, transport and industrial production. However, two extraordinary civilizations such as the Incas and Aztecs were developing successfully without the use of the wheel.

Another example is the invention of money papers (Bills). He eliminated those difficult trade-offs exchanged heavy goods and large amounts of gold and silver manipulated. Instead came the banks, who came to revolutionize the business world.

Recently launched, a recycling paper machine for corporate and even personal use was announced. It is interesting to observe the process of three minutes, by which the used paper is transformed in new one in color and texture chosen by the user. This technological breakthrough will undoubtedly be extended soon to the recycling of other plastic products larger.

This extraordinary system will create an inventory of permanent paper. Excellent !!! But,

What will happen to the many paper manufacturing plants? And recycling plants? How many jobs will be lost? All are valid questions, even questioning the very use of paper, which is in sharp decline.

Of course, not all businesses will be lost, some achieve evolve. For example, everyone remember beepers but nobody uses them. They simply were replaced by cell phones. In this case, most of the vending business beepers, became cellular stores. Fixed telephony companies evolved into mobile technology, but still retain a segment of its market mainly for corporate solutions.

Some professions also managed to evolve. This is the case of journalism: The origin was the flat press or printed paper, then followed the broadcast journalism, then television and now digital. All very well, evolving with each invention, only that now the news "fly" but there are fewer  reporters and workshop personnel in the publishing groups. Even the removal of the workshops is contemplated when the press edition will be completely online.

Really, technological advances, especially in the urban centers of developed countries are creating massive unemployment, as we can see in different areas.

We know the heavy losses suffered by banks, because of the laws that regulate them and prevent them from granting more loans. We understand the cost involved in handling thousands of branches and employees. But at the same time we see the thousands of ATMs that have left many workers unemployed.

We appreciate the speed in sending online correspondence and the speed and accuracy of our digital payments. But we realize that thousands of postmen have lost their jobs nationwide.

We were amazed of the variety of transactions that we can do in the stock market through our computer. But we also know of thousands of previous workers in brokerage houses, which were laid off.

We are pleased to see the agility that now has traffic as it passes through a toll. But we also miss those thousands of employees who greeted us with a smile and who we consulted them addresses   when we were lost and we did not have maps on hand.

Instead, when the technology reaches the most impoverished areas of the world, not only it becomes a factor of physical expanding life expectancy, but also effectively creates jobs.

When an invented machine capable of converting into drinking water human excrement, is used in remote regions of Southeast Asia or Northwest Africa,  indirectly creates jobs as the time saved in finding the vital liquid, may be invested in working.

Also, when solar energy reaches these humble homes at bargain costs which can be paid with cell phone use, a number of benefits such as refrigeration and power are obtained, all of which leads to greater job opportunities.

And of course, fusions that means growing big business in few hands, further reduces the possibility of employment. For example, the valuable company AT & T, exclusive provider of excellent telephone services yesterday, now evolved into the cellular market and acquired digital television platform, search engine and digital satellite television.

Of course, it is not easy to provide efficient services to more than 300 million customers. It seems logical to hire customer service staff in other countries, since there are too workers required to handle calls of many human beings with problems of different kinds.

We know that hiring an army of employees in the US representing a decrease of annual net profit and thus a lower payment to shareholders in dividends from shares.

But, how far can grow a huge company without affecting the national economy? Because if they take the risk of an aggressive expansion, they also must responsible assume the implicit transaction costs.

In other words, a way to increase employment in the US it is to maintain customer service centers in the country and not outside of it. And certainly, that is one way to combat those displaced by technological advances.

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Economist and Journalist
@DeYURRE

SOCIALISM IS A BAD WORD

                                                Published by El Nuevo Herald on May 1st, 2016

Seems dangerous that  apparently mostly young people, be with Bernie Sanders. Did I could say then that America's future is socialism? Not at all. It's just that have been selling merchandise with the name of socialism, essentially for political purposes.

Sanders has a known history as a socialist. In 1963 he belonged to the Socialist Party of America Youth League, a branch of the Socialist Party of America. After three terms as mayor, where it proclaimed it himself as socialist, since 1990 and as an independent, he becomes congressman , in what the Washington Post called "the 1st socialist elected to the US Congress in decades."

In 2015 he joins the Democratic Party and is auto-defined as democratic socialist to aspirate as presidential candidate. His project of democratic socialism, in his words, is comparable to the Scandinavian countries. Let's see: Sweden, Norway and Denmark are not socialist but constitutional monarchies.

▪ Sweden: It is considered the most democratic among 167 countries according to the Democracy Index 2006. Most of its production is manufactured by the private sector and by 2015 was ranked 23rd out of 178 countries in the Index of Economic Freedom.

▪ Norway: The State controls 30% of the companies listed on the stock market, including the oil industry companies. Officially, only 2% of the oil revenue can be used for social works. This automatically ruled the country as a non socialist.

▪ Denmark: Despite being considered the ideal place to live, according to the World Bank, Denmark is among the five most expensive countries in the world with the highest taxes in Europe (46%) and the highest wages in the world according to Union Bank of Switzerland. It also has the best climate in the world for business (Forbes).

Many socialists or communists projects have ended in failure, as the collapse of the Soviet bloc and the discredited Forum of Sao Paulo.

Others have endured over time based on a tyranny that represses its people with a firm hand, like North Korea and Cuba.

XXI century socialism propagated by Hugo Chavez has resulted in an economic and social debacle where the real aim of the rulers has been entrench themselves in power through manipulation of the constitution of their respective countries.

A pathetic case is Venezuela, a country with enormous wealth that is currently suffering from hyperinflation that has plunged into extreme poverty to 75% of the population.

It turns out that the behavior of the socialists is shamefully immoral. They themselves create poverty and social unrest and then justify "good deeds" and say they are benefiting the people.

Bernie Sanders has got the youth promising them that education will be completely free. Does this mean that there will be no private colleges and universities? I doubt it.  If his imaginative plan is approved, the state will compensate those entities.

▪ Wanting  better salary is not socialism.

▪ Aspiring to affordable health care is not  socialism.

▪ Wanting  less expensive education is not  socialism.

▪ Pretending better income for retirees is not  socialism.

▪ Achieve  legal status for immigrants is not  socialism.

For political reasons these human aspirations have been sold as socialism. Socialism is the absence of private ownership over the factors of production.

The US is democratic in nature and that word "socialism" frightens many. So, Hillary Clinton will be finally nominated by the Democratic Party, which is not a socialist party as so many have wanted to see.

And the running mate as Vice President  probably will be the current secretary of housing Julian Castro, who thus settle a formidable duo to face pretensions of Donald Trump.

Benjamin F. DeYurre

Economist and journalist.

Benjamin F. DeYurre Follow on Twitter: @DeYURRE

OFFSHORE COMPANIES: THE NEEDLE IN A HAYSTACK

Published by El Nuevo Herald on April 17, 2016

Any person, natural or legal,  is entitled to conduct business in the country of their choice. That is the essence of our system.The problem is that politically exposed persons (PEP) and their families, apparently, also have that right.

The Panamanian firm Mossack Fonseca is only one of the creators of more than 214,000 offshore companies handling around $ 40.000 million. Recently, the analysis of a research consortium says that the firm in question has as clients 58 relatives and associates of prime ministers and kings.

When an offshore company is created, usually several objectives are pursued, namely:

▪ Hide identity

▪ Investing abroad

▪ Having foreign partners

▪ Paying less taxes on profits

▪ raise funds from the public

▪ Establish legal succession

Of course, artists, athletes and other celebrities have business offshore. And rightly argues: "I do not want people to know that I am the corner business owner ." Thus they have fewer escorts, are less exposed to vandalism or demands, and can even visit incognito their own business.

The situation is complicated when dubious resources come in. Where no previous research is done, occurs what it happened with the firm Mossack Fonseca, when they incorporated more than 14,000 companies on an island in the Indian Ocean, of which only 204 were known by its true identity of the principal.

It had already been a previous history with this firm when they were fined $ 37.500 in the British Virgin Islands for incorporating a company of the son of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, while both were accused of corruption in his country.

In the 80's began to decline the numbered accounts in Swiss banks, which was the main destination of the ill-gotten money. Subsequently and following a US agreement with many European banks, the US standard was established to report  all investments of more than $ 50,000 made by US citizens.

All of this simply urged more offshore corporations to be created, especially by the fact that they are much more profitable than a bank deposit.

The greatest danger is that billionaires terrorist groups like ISIS  may have legitimate business; however, so far the most serious crimes committed  in the US have been done using onshore companies, as in the slaughter of the Twin Towers or the $ 40.000 million scam perpetrated by Bernie Madoff in 2008.

Many offshore companies continue to exist, just only now, investors will prefer smaller, discrete firms. They will continue hiding the identity, except legal provisions such as recently occurred in Miami and New York, when the federal government banned the sale of real estate to ghosts corporations that do not reveal the real identity of the buyer.

Many just say you should do business  with "God and the Devil". However, we must defend our democratic system, precisely to not giving input to totalitarian solutions.

So simply, we must not sell the rope with which to hang many, including ourselves.

Benjamin F. DeYurre

Economist and journalist.

 Follow on Twitter: @DeYURRE

TRUMP, CHINA AND CUBA

                                  Published by El Nuevo Herald on March 23, 2016

We know the political aberrations of Donald Trump when seeking to legally carry arms to all 50 states of the Union with a single permit for all of them, when he states that must deny citizenship to children of illegal immigrants born in the US or when he says that it is necessary to deport all undocumented immigrants and build a wall along the border with Mexico.

Although these barbarities have their followers, Trump also holds other positions, such as tax free inheritance, sell military services to other countries, multilateral treaties combat unleashing a trade war with China and advance relations with Cuba.

Trump says that you should not punish those who achieved the American Dream, taxing their heirs. Does not clarify whether the heirs have to be strictly family.

It proposes to sell the US military services for intervening in conflicts in other regions. This can be interpreted as mercenaries services, which, of course, never include the loss of human lives.

It is against treaty as the Trans-Pacific Agreement, involving 40% of world production in 12 countries. Apparently not foresee that this agreement is precisely that guarantees the hegemony of the dollar against the Chinese harassment. Currently in 70 countries, more than 900 financial institutions make operations exclusively in yuans (renbimbi), instead of using the dollar, which is customary.

It ensures that the inclusion of China in the World Trade Organization (WTO) has led to the closure of 50.000 factories in the US, leaving millions unemployed. Trump guarantees that the Chinese currency is artificially undervalued in order to stimulate their exports. However, since 2006, the yuan has gained 19% against the dollar.

About three years ago many began to sell the currency to buy other currencies, it brought down the yuan. The Chinese government reacted, massively selling the dollar to buy yuan and so strengthen it. Of course, lowering the Chinese dollar reserves, and since most transactions are in that currency (fortunately), the yuan can fall back sharply. Hence the vital importance of the Trans-Pacific Agreement, to which China does not belong and where the twelve signatory countries will trade in dollars.

Among the Trump's proposals is to advance relations with Cuba and that differed with other candidates in the Republican party.

Condemns the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 and yet does not speak about the necessary full freedom of the Cuban people to lift this law in the US.

Refers that US should take care of any agreement with Cuba since this could introduce a demand for $ 30 billion in American courts by the trade embargo on the island. However, does not touch the sensitive issue of the restitution of goods confiscated in Cuba, from both, Americans and Cubans.

As we see, despite all their positions, Trump has his followers.

Until where its position on Cuba favors him nationally?

Surveys in favor of relations with Cuba exceed 54%, without implying recognition or support for the dictatorship in Cuba.

Perhaps, even a particular interest in Cuba might have Trump. He may want to be the first to invade the island with its casinos, after doing so in the US if elected president, something extremely unlikely given that US presidential elections are usually defined by a narrow margin of two to three million votes. If only 57% of the 16 million Hispanics who are against Trump actually vote, he already lost to Hillary.

Benjamin F. DeYurre

Economist and journalist.

Follow on Twitter: @DeYURRE

ARE WE BETTER NOW OR WORST THAN 2009 ?

Published by El Nuevo Herald on July 30, 2015

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2017 there are no funds to pay disability benefits, known as disability insurance. However, according to the law Deficit Control Act of 1985, it is presumed that the Social Security Administration will pay benefits to the disabled, even though the reserves to undertake such payment are exhausted.

The major source of income for Social Security are the payroll taxes. Indeed, although employment has increased recently, it is not enough to collect the money needed in order to be able to pay retirement benefits, survivors or disabled.

The increasing productivity is an important factor in this respect. It happens that productivity is the worst enemy of employment. To the extent that continuing technological advances, productivity increases, but employment decreases. So, they are inversely proportional.

For example, now the online negotiations on the Stock Exchange are faster and more numerous, but have left without jobs all manual operators. Likewise, we see more letters but less postmen, more news but fewer reporters, etc., etc.

Realistically, the most effective way to create jobs is to invest in America, not in other countries.

After the crisis of 2007-2009 and until 2012, there was a significant decline in economic activity, which resulted in the tax expense grew disproportionately while revenue decreased dangerously.

Because of that respectable deficit, the US public debt reached 74% of gross domestic product (GDP), becoming in the second largest step after World War II. Although the average of that debt in the last 50 years has been 38% of GDP, it is estimated for 2025 will reach 78%.

Many even believe that something similar happened in Greece, by having high taxes, massive debt and welfare system too generous. Of course, there are important differences between Greece and the United States.

Greece had contracted its debt in drachmas, but now owe money in euros, which means that control of the Central Bank lies with Europe. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve knows that necessarily they are going to buy US government bonds.

In fact, Greece can not even ensure that the European Central Bank (ECB) will purchase all Greek bonds that European banks have acquired. However, the ECB has been buying Greek bonds, but conditioning the country: in fact, has "suggested" to Greece hotel taxes increased from 13% to 23% and in the case of restaurants, from 6.5% to 13% .

So, it seems that Greece would jump to some sort of fiscal cliff, where they increase taxes and must cut spending.

Fortunately, the situation in America is different. According to the projections of the Congressional Budget Office, if we want the debt for 2040  maintained at least at 74% of GDP, we should increase revenues by 6% or decrease expenses by 5.5%.

That additional contribution of $ 210 billion would be income or expenditure of approximately $ 650 per person per year, something not too hard  to achieve. For example, betting less lottery really means more than $ 650 annually.

There are sectors who believe that rejecting Obamacare will solved the problem. It is quite the opposite.

Repel the Obamacare will increase the deficit by $ 137 billion over 10 years, mainly because the net savings that serves as provision for current health coverage would decrease considerably, in addition that 23 million young people would remain uninsured by 2017 .

Actually, the US economy is strong, despite comments and partisan interests.

For example, the Dow Jones hit a record high of 18,000 points this year, when in 2009 it was 7,900. The S & P 500 index managed a score of 2,100 while in 2009 it was only 805.

And the fiscal deficit is now only 2.7% of GDP, very different from 2009, when it was 9.8%.

If this is not economic improvement, how could we call it ?

Economist and journalist.

BenSales@att.net

TRUMP AND HISPANICS

Published by El Nuevo Herald on August 29, 2015

It seems very venerable the fact of wanting to defend the country in which one is born and lives.

It seems that more and more foreign travelers come to stay. It seems we'll have to keep them all forever, those who already live here and those who have yet to arrive. These and other comments are woven on immigrants. But what is not discussed at length are the benefits that immigrants bring to the US economy; on the contrary, what is now at the top of the news is precisely the anti-immigrant stance taken by Donald Trump.

In last debate between the candidates for the Republican primary, Trump was the shining star and since then continues to lead the polls for these elections. Among his brilliant ideas, he proposed the expulsion of illegal immigrants and the non-recognition of US citizenship to children born in the US of these.

Trump also accepted the fact that he declared bankruptcy four times and unashamedly states that "everybody does the same because you have to know how to exploit the weaknesses of the system" and also "I always have money."

Incredibly, this savvy is what makes it attractive to voters, along with other statements not considered politically correct.

It happens that Trump is exploiting a reef than any previous candidate had ventured to touch; awaken the hidden and suppressed for decades in American purer strain, apparently it is paying off, for now nationalism.

Of course, there are many objections to counteract Trump. For example, we imagine what would have happened if the descendants of the 17 founding fathers of this great American nation (all immigrants) had refused them citizenship.

From 1990 to 2000, immigrants had twice patents registered than those born here. If we had deported them, would the US was the world's leading technology?

The DREAM ACT (which represented a path to citizenship for those who arrived on American soil before age 16 years), had it been approved federally, would have reduced the fiscal deficit by $ 1.4 trillion and increased government revenues by $ 2.3 billion, according to a study University of California. The same study found that DREAM Act students during their careers had generated a gross income of between $ 1.4 and $ 3.6 trillion. Does it seem logical to deport these students after forming in the US?

Trump proposals are not only foolish but also are an outburst. The best way to prosecute eleven million immigrants it is integrating them into the production process.

For years I have suggested that these immigrants could collaborate with US companies that have relocated its factories  in the country. To compensate them for their cooperation and to respect the laws, they would receive a monthly bonus redeemable (no salary). It would allow them to survive for five years when they could apply for permanent residence. In this way we would kill two birds with one stone: illegal immigration and unemployment. You just need true patriotism  to achieve it; not only of business man lives .

Regarding immigrants are continuously coming, obviously we need a comprehensive immigration reform that includes a kind of free immigration treaty.

When they treated immigration, several studies have shown that free movement of people among related countries generally contributes to greater prosperity, when that movement is controlled.

It is estimated that Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) from 12 countries, strongly backed by the Democratic administration and the Republican majority, will consider these conditions when it is finally approved.

Finally, it is important to tell candidate Trump something that he knows very well.  In US it is estimated that there are 16 million immigrants with vote, many of them with family, friends, neighbors or co-working Americans. That has a significant multiplier effect, which ultimately has a major influence in any election. Consequently, we do not believe any candidate opposed to them has the slightest chance of being elected.

And among Hispanics who have been accommodated in this great country, we believe there is an enormous contempt for Trump; he feels the same for us.

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE

Economist and journalist.