Published in El Nuevo Herald on Junio 03, 2012
After long periods of dictatorships, usually appears longest periods of Democracy, as in Venezuela after Juan Vicente Gómez, Portugal after Salazar and Spain after Franco. Only a successor, not monarchical, to inherit power in North Korea on the death of his father Kil Il Sung. Although the situations are different for Asian idiosyncrasies often worship their idols, in Cuba until now there is a successor in the figure of Raul Castro, who because of age will not remain for long in power. Raul said the following at the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party held last year "..... I assume my last task of never permitting the return of the capitalist regime." Despite these statements, following the continuity of history, it is expected that the system disappears with Raul and a capitalist development model is established on the island.
In Cuban society there are four clearly defined group, those with a home that does not want to miss when private ownership returns. Those who have been beaten or killed civilians and always be fearful of justice. Officers in charge of state agencies that have borrowed to the country and do not generate resources to repay the loans. The military who after graduation, have had to take to tip beatings of civilians, including the Ladies in White, and filled to the brim the Cuban unhealthy and dark dungeons.
Actually there is a consensus that predicts the fall of communist regime by implosion, repressed to pop the widespread discontent among the people. There are two possible scenarios involving these four groups; took power a board of civilians or take a board of military power. In either case, a number of measures must be adopted by the board of the moment: 1. - Accept the nomination of political parties and convene presidential elections, provincial and municipal in the next 90 days. 2. - Reinstate the rule of law in its entirety, that is, reform the penal code, reissued titles, registers and Cadastre. 3. - The construction of public works will require a capital of approximately $ 100,000 million. In this regard the Board will authorize the issuance of sovereign bonds that quote in the capital market. Also accept (but not manipulate) new low-interest loans from the World Bank, the IDB and the IMF, as well as international aid from many countries such as USA who through the Helms-Burton has promised to help with $ 10,000 million for a Democratic Cuba. 4. - Eliminate the ineffective internal circulation of Cuban peso and the convertible 'Chavito'. Instead, before establishing its own currency, the dollar should begin to regenerate faster monetary policy. Yet despite the weaknesses that can display the dollar by the projected rise of Chinese Yuan, the two million Cubans living in the U.S. who maintain bank accounts in that currency, are a strong endorsement of the business in Cuba.5. - Disown the current debt and leave Cuba cleanly from scratch. This debt consists of the $ 30,000 million to Cuba due to the Paris Club (17 European countries, Canada, USA and Japan), the $ 27,000 million convertible rubles due to the former USSR and more than $ 15,000 million owed to Venezuela. 6. - No evicted from their homes to current tenants, but will establish a minimum income for those living without paying. The amount of such income shall be deposited in banks to be claimed by those who retain the original title. A controversial legislation be adopted to avoid eviction in case of sale of the property. 7. - Decree a general amnesty to public offenses, always and when there are not proven crimes like the murder of Brothers to the Rescue, or the slaughter of civilians in the tugboat 13 de Marzo. 8. - Prohibit possession of firearms to civilians. This will avoid possible vendettas for past abuses. 9. - Appoint a committee of 'notables' consists of 13 local characters and exile, whose real interest is the re-inclusion of Cuba on the world market. These 'significant' economic interests should not have, themselves or associated material recovery in Cuba. As expected, massive capital inflow to the island, the main function of this committee 'remarkable' will accept and publish tenders for media: Rebuilding entire blocks currently collapsed, completely remodel the historic centers of cities, Revamping beaches and other tourist centers, build public works such as hospitals, schools, roads, bridges and barracks.
Cuba now and for many years, has been in bankruptcy. While countries like the USSR and Venezuela now have funded, along with remittances from exiles, the reality is that the economy collapsed pemanece, much more so than the disastrous Greece, who, despite having the same number of inhabitants (11 million ) exported a value of $ 21,000 million while Cuba alone exported $ 3,300 million last year. No matter what attempts are made to look like the present for the economies of China and Vietnam, with its unprecedented plan to sack 500,000 civil servants, just make everything worse by the inability of the system to absorb those jobs. Slowly, very slowly, the pressure continues to rise in the pan, until boiling point such that inevitably burst. Then, begin construction of a new Cuba, a Cuba that will reclaim its previous place of honor as the foremost Hispanic country in Latin America.
One aspect to be considered only at the beginning: this is the euphoria of the exiles and tourists visiting the island, which will shift the board's inability to manage infrastructure and vehicle fleet to meet foreign demand. Even cruises will begin offering itineraries to Cuba. Indeed, the future is flattering, very flattering.
BENJAMIN F DeYURRE
Economist and journalist
In Cuban society there are four clearly defined group, those with a home that does not want to miss when private ownership returns. Those who have been beaten or killed civilians and always be fearful of justice. Officers in charge of state agencies that have borrowed to the country and do not generate resources to repay the loans. The military who after graduation, have had to take to tip beatings of civilians, including the Ladies in White, and filled to the brim the Cuban unhealthy and dark dungeons.
Actually there is a consensus that predicts the fall of communist regime by implosion, repressed to pop the widespread discontent among the people. There are two possible scenarios involving these four groups; took power a board of civilians or take a board of military power. In either case, a number of measures must be adopted by the board of the moment: 1. - Accept the nomination of political parties and convene presidential elections, provincial and municipal in the next 90 days. 2. - Reinstate the rule of law in its entirety, that is, reform the penal code, reissued titles, registers and Cadastre. 3. - The construction of public works will require a capital of approximately $ 100,000 million. In this regard the Board will authorize the issuance of sovereign bonds that quote in the capital market. Also accept (but not manipulate) new low-interest loans from the World Bank, the IDB and the IMF, as well as international aid from many countries such as USA who through the Helms-Burton has promised to help with $ 10,000 million for a Democratic Cuba. 4. - Eliminate the ineffective internal circulation of Cuban peso and the convertible 'Chavito'. Instead, before establishing its own currency, the dollar should begin to regenerate faster monetary policy. Yet despite the weaknesses that can display the dollar by the projected rise of Chinese Yuan, the two million Cubans living in the U.S. who maintain bank accounts in that currency, are a strong endorsement of the business in Cuba.5. - Disown the current debt and leave Cuba cleanly from scratch. This debt consists of the $ 30,000 million to Cuba due to the Paris Club (17 European countries, Canada, USA and Japan), the $ 27,000 million convertible rubles due to the former USSR and more than $ 15,000 million owed to Venezuela. 6. - No evicted from their homes to current tenants, but will establish a minimum income for those living without paying. The amount of such income shall be deposited in banks to be claimed by those who retain the original title. A controversial legislation be adopted to avoid eviction in case of sale of the property. 7. - Decree a general amnesty to public offenses, always and when there are not proven crimes like the murder of Brothers to the Rescue, or the slaughter of civilians in the tugboat 13 de Marzo. 8. - Prohibit possession of firearms to civilians. This will avoid possible vendettas for past abuses. 9. - Appoint a committee of 'notables' consists of 13 local characters and exile, whose real interest is the re-inclusion of Cuba on the world market. These 'significant' economic interests should not have, themselves or associated material recovery in Cuba. As expected, massive capital inflow to the island, the main function of this committee 'remarkable' will accept and publish tenders for media: Rebuilding entire blocks currently collapsed, completely remodel the historic centers of cities, Revamping beaches and other tourist centers, build public works such as hospitals, schools, roads, bridges and barracks.
Cuba now and for many years, has been in bankruptcy. While countries like the USSR and Venezuela now have funded, along with remittances from exiles, the reality is that the economy collapsed pemanece, much more so than the disastrous Greece, who, despite having the same number of inhabitants (11 million ) exported a value of $ 21,000 million while Cuba alone exported $ 3,300 million last year. No matter what attempts are made to look like the present for the economies of China and Vietnam, with its unprecedented plan to sack 500,000 civil servants, just make everything worse by the inability of the system to absorb those jobs. Slowly, very slowly, the pressure continues to rise in the pan, until boiling point such that inevitably burst. Then, begin construction of a new Cuba, a Cuba that will reclaim its previous place of honor as the foremost Hispanic country in Latin America.
One aspect to be considered only at the beginning: this is the euphoria of the exiles and tourists visiting the island, which will shift the board's inability to manage infrastructure and vehicle fleet to meet foreign demand. Even cruises will begin offering itineraries to Cuba. Indeed, the future is flattering, very flattering.
BENJAMIN F DeYURRE
Economist and journalist
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