DEMOCRATS WILL REPEAT IN 2016 ?

Published by El Nuevo Herald on February 12, 2016

 

Obviously, the immediate and logical answer  is related to the historical aspect; few times a US political party repeated for the third time in office.

 

Indeed, the longest period of party rule corresponds to the Democrats, who retained the presidency for twenty years, from 1933-1953 (Roosevelt-Truman).

 

And interestingly, twenty years ago that a political party also does not repeat for the third time since Republican George Bush became president after the incumbent Ronald Reagan.

 

However, while Democrats lost the elections last year, there is an important sector in the party that believes this fact is irrelevant since they also lost the midterm elections in 2010 and even then, Obama was reelected in 2012.

 

There are two extremely important factors in that scheme qualifying as wrong that view:

1. When Democrats lost the midterm elections in 2010, Obama was going for reelection, suggesting a great advantage. It's not the same aspiring first time that seeking reelection.

 

2. Although Democrats lost the midterm elections in 2010, continued to control the Senate.  Now the dominion is total by Republicans in both chambers.

 

These two factors play an important role in the political landscape in the short term. Additionally, there are other trends that seem to reinforce these factors. They are:

1. The tendency of a bipartisan coalition, in which the applicant party (Republican) increasingly does not show support for certain proposals made by such coalition.

 

2. The tendency of the ruling party (Democrat) to lose seats in Congress.

 

Of course, the most obvious logic is also present: the longer it remains in power, more voters find reasons to blame President and consider, therefore, give a chance to the opponent.

 

Moreover, it is known that the Democrats will inherit 23 well-competitive states, of which 19 were won by Obama.  Could it happen that the black vote diminish their support for the Democratic Party, if the candidate of that party were a person of the white race, for example, Hillary Clinton?

 

It seems that the black vote will remain Democrat background, although this time may be less than when Obama won.

 

It is also assumed that Hispanics and Asians continue voting for the Democrats, although this may be debatable.  For example, it was observed that more Hispanics supported George W. Bush in 2004 that Mitt Romney in 2012.

 

When Obama assumed the presidency in 2009, the fiscal deficit, unemployment and consumer confidence were the characteristic features of the economy at the time.  Currently, all these variables have significantly decreased.  Even the Dow Jones recently achieved its highest score since it was created, which implies an increase in investor confidence and theoretically, greater job creation.

Many still criticize it, but Obamacare is an undeniable milestone, comparable in time to Social Security and Medicare.

 

Although history favors a Republican victory in 2016, the Democratic point of view suggests that the historical rules are made to be changed, considering that history does not always mean the same destination.

 

For example, Barack Obama was elected the first black president. And Hillary Clinton may well be elected as the first female president of the United States of America, why not?

 

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE 

Economist and journalist.

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ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN CUBA

 

Published by El Nuevo Herald on January 20, 2015

 

 

It is very hard for the Cuban regime surviving longer paying poverty wages, as happened in Russia when its collapse made its own popular adage: "They pretended to pay us and we pretended we were working."

 Every time the US has restored trade relations with any country, usually does increase its gross domestic product (GDP).

•  In Japan, between 1946 and 1949 inflation reached 1000%.  However, he managed a boom in growth, from 6.2% in 1956 to 13.1% in 1960.
•  China rose from Asiatic mode of production to achieve a long stable period with a growth of 9.5% annually.
• Vietnam, despite having few major export items, managed to reach a 6.8% annual growth after resuming relations with the US.

.

Official figures from the Cuban communist regime reflect the country grew by just 2.7% between 2009 and 2013, and the "private" employment increased from 17% to 26.3% over the same period.  It would be interesting to know if these "jobs" are illegal or protected by the system.

In any case and in light of the new US-Cuba relations, there are some steps that should be implemented to ensure that these relationships work effectively:

 

▪ The scheme must fully restore property rights, issuing new securities, registers and cadastres.

▪ US banks should have correspondent accounts with Cuban banks, in order to use debit and / or credit in the country.

▪ Banks Cubans and Americans should be able to open bilateral letters of credit, essential to handle foreign trade.

▪ Now in Cuba , the Cuban convertible currency and Cuban normal currency are simultaneously accepted.  It should also be accepted alongside the dollar, which undoubtedly will circulate widely.

▪ US companies expropriated by the government without compensation, must give up claims. If not, it'll encroach relations when Cuban ships or aircraft touchAmerican soil as they may be subject to legal disputes.

The fact that the United States resumed trade with Cuba does not mean supporting the regime. Rather indicates that improve the living conditions of impoverished Cuba, who has had those conditions in the last 56 years.

What enrich the regime and this consequently further repress its people?  Undoubtedly, it is an economic benefit to the regime;  however, this can no longer repress his people more than previously done.

On the contrary, for improving the conditions of its inhabitants, immigration to the US will decrease.  Cuban's natural ability for businesses will increase private property, thus undermining the pyramidal base supporting the communist ideology itself.

China and Vietnam have grown economically but continue to repress their people. Cuba also will grow, but for how long remain its communism?  The Asian and Cuban idiosyncrasies are very different.

In communist Cuba have always been two classes: the leaders and others. Now, after a short time, there will be more classes and thus be in conflict.

 

In theory, the creation of political parties and a flood of technology, eventually will bringing down the system.

 

Economist and journalist.

 

HOW TO LOSE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

 

 

PUBLISHED BY EL NUEVO HERALD ON OCTOBER 04, 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Faced with a changing economic world, where competition is increasing and resources are dwindling, a type of leadership that try to balance these two factors is necessary.  In the past, the major economic and social reforms in the U.S. have not been without controversy.  Neither is Obamacare.

 

When on June 8, 1934, Democrat President Franklin Delano Roosevelt proposed to Congress the creation of Social Security, a group of Republican senators asked the then Minister of Labor, Frances Perkins, if that was socialism.  Mrs. Perkins, who was then the first woman in a presidential cabinet, said no.  She not only sponsored the Social Security Act. So did the minimum wage laws and unemployment compensation.

 

Once the Social Security became law in 1935, its implementation meant a gigantic task;  in 1936 and 1937, 35 million registered, employers and employees.

 

To date, the Roosevelt administration had not yet overcome the great economic crisis of 1929, inherited from Republican President Herbert Hoover. Thus, registering for Social Security had to be done by mail. 

 

The economic recovery of the era also brought measures that regulated banking, as several banks were accused of fraud and largely blamed for the crisis. That's when the FDIC fund protection for bank depositors and  SEC or the commission to regulate the operations of the stock exchange, arise.

 

To 1964, Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson argues that retirees 65 years and old can not carry their medical expenses. That's when he proposed the creation of Medicare and then Medicaid for low-income or disabled.

 

Senator Barry Morris Goldwater nominated by the Republicans for the presidency in 1964, said: "If our pensioners get paid by their medical expenses, why not pay them well housing, food, holidays, liquor and cigarettes?" Of course, before such comments Goldwater lost the election to Johnson.

 

In 1965, Medicare was approved by Congress and also was a major work effort to enroll more than 20 million beneficiaries in the next three years.

 

In 1995, Republican Robert Dole, running for president in 1996, declared proudly: "I was one of the members of the House to vote against the creation of Medicare in 1965."  Of course, Dole lost the election to Bill Clinton.

 

Apparently, the fact of  opposing major social reforms consistent with the course of history only makes losing presidential elections.

 

At present, the government of President Barack Obama is engaged in implementing health care reform known as Obamacare. As usual, Republicans oppose.  They have already achieved partial government shutdown and threaten to block an increase in the debt ceiling if Obamacare is not slow and / or modify its implementation.  However, the project is legally in effect and will not stop.

 

As we saw in the past, Obamacare will not be an easy task, nor was the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  Coincidentally, we see that Obama inherited a crisis from Bush,  as Roosevelt inherited from Hoover.  We also see it as Obamacare have labeled as socialist project.  The truth is that Obamacare is a hard work, who will gradually adjusting mechanisms to correct their mistakes.

 

Really, the only historical error will oppose Obamacare.  There is no surer way of losing elections.

 

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE  

Economist and Journalist 

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WHO WON THE ELECTION ?

Published by El Nuevo Herald on November 26, 2014

 

 

Who writes this note was lucky of running for state representative for District 103 in Florida during the last elections on the November 4, 2014. With the ignorance that a novice can have on a political campaign, but with the objectivity that characterizes ethical journalism, these are roughly the factors that shaped the winning equation in those elections.

 

MONEY: As usual with few exceptions, increased campaign fund is directly proportional to the odds of winning; In other words, the more money you have, the more volunteers are paid and more spaces are bought in the media.

It's no secret that large corporations are supporting particular candidates hoping they defend their interests.

 

This is why the chambers of commerce of each city pass a list to members of the candidates should be supported.

 

Large businesses are really only 1% of the electorate, but manage the remaining 99% to achieve voting for their candidates, despite even, both have conflicting interests regarding wages.

 

THE LACK OF PARTY UNITY: This occurs in both parties, but in this election, this factor was dominant in the Democratic Party, particularly in South Florida.

 

Who writes this column was not recommended by his party in Broward County, due to an "error of omission", despite knowing, a priori, that if raked in that county, could win the election.

 

Although he was recommended by his party in Miami Dade, 40,000 advertisings distributed among voters in Broward County don't show the candidate of 103 district, which for the electoral purposes, had seven county precincts. This costly mistake undoubtedly influenced the outcome of the election.

 

Moreover, a massive advertising support was evidenced by Republicans elected officials, while in Democrats, this support was very limited. However, some public support as the property appraiser and the state representative for District 112 were unsuccessful, without this means weakness; rather, it reinforces the concept that prestige is not transferable.

 

Also, among the Democrats there was a "divorce" between the state party and the party in Miami Dade. While the candidates recruited by the State (including the undersigned for two months) enjoyed support, Miami Dade candidates had to seek their support on their own. In contrast, among Republicans we saw as many television and radio commercials were paid by the party directly.

 

APATHY: The midterm elections are extremely important because they determine the majority in both chambers. As indeed happened. This means that if before the opposition to President was fierce, is now virtually guaranteed results.

 

In Miami Dade came out to vote 40% of the electorate, who without being a percentage majority do manage to win elections.

 

The anticipated votes increased 25% compared to 2010 as well as absentee ballots, which incidentally, a nonprofit company whose volunteers wearing orange pullovers, toured many neighborhoods asking voters to request their absentee ballot. 

 

It would be interesting to know the political affiliation of the directors of that organization with hundreds of workers who exercised that function.

PLATFORMS: This election has been characterized by an almost total absence of well-defined campaign issues. While candidates for governor and a congressional seat were attacked each other, the other candidates, almost all (not including the undersigned) were limited to repeat the command of the party, without mentioning other issues that electorate had wanted to hear.

 

THE SECOND TERM: Historically it has been shown that the current President in exercise, lose popularity, although he improves his unemployment, investment, trust and deficit rates.

 

If we know that this happens and affects the midterm elections, why the Democratic Party didn't try to keep his popularity high spreading achievements endlessly?

 

These are the factors that, in our view, largely influenced the outcome of elections.

 

For me as candidate, it has been an enriching experience. That frenetic daily bustle, the nights of incessant work and relationships developed. were extraordinary activities that must be experienced to know them.

 

No wonder many politicians prefer to share his current income or waive them in order to be elected to public office.

 

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE

 

Economist and Journalist, former candidate for state representative,  District 103.-D-

 

 

 

 

PRIVATIZATION OF EDUCATION IN FLORIDA ?

 

 

Published by El Nuevo Herald on May 21st, 2014

 

 

 

 

 

Around the world there is the certainty that most basic public services should be undertaken by the State,  who is funding the development of the nation, promoting a number of factors whose purpose is to strengthen our system by facilitating the means for capital investment and consequent job creation.

 

 

 

 

Thus, we see that the construction of fire stations, police commissaries, medical clinics, roads, schools and public education, is usually performed by the State who also give most of the services altogether.

 

However, in Florida, since 1996, have proliferated some schools called charter schools, which are largely a kind of symbiosis between state capital and private equity.

 

By December 2011 there were about 5,600 charter schools with more than 2 million students nationwide and more than 400,000 of them on the waiting list.

 

In Florida, for 2012-2013, 200,000 students were enrolled in 574 charter schools in 44 districts.

 

Opening a charter school is relatively easy. A group of parents, teachers and community members gather. Formalize a request to the appropriate school district and create a board that negotiates a contract with the district. The board of that district then becomes sponsor of the charter school.

 

This group sometimes is nonprofit.  However, sometimes it is just the opposite. And this usually happens because members of the community by themselves, just look at charter schools another way of doing business through public funding allocated to these charter schools.

 

Charter schools are schools of choice, really not administered by the state. This means that neither students nor teachers are required to attend the school, that is, this is a major difference with the public schools, where, for example, a district students must attend schools in the district.

 

The main problem at the local level lies in the effort being made by the normally 85,000 teachers in Miami Dade County.  They are hired year by year renewing their contract without obligation prior to maturity.  Their incomes are modest and soon his professional assessment will be based on a complex mathematical equation that obviously limit its progress.

 

With the variety of educational modalities that exists today, the efforts of the teachers usually dissipates and is not balanced evenly.

 

There is a home schooling, where parents play the role of teachers and the children take examinations timely.

 

There are magnet schools, where students must have a special predisposition toward a particular subject.

 

There is distance learning or virtual school, which in Florida has experienced unprecedented growth, from $ 35 million spending in the previous year to $ 156 million today.  In addition to the increase in such spending, student achievement is questioned as it is not compulsory to attend classes.

 

Currently, with all the pressures to teachers in Miami Dade, charter schools have the option to accept or not to impose collective bargaining union for the benefit of teachers.

 

Evidently, and so indicates the annual trend of 13% growth, charter schools continue to rise, receiving tax dollars that public schools really urgently need.

 

Right now, through a program called Corporate Tax Credit Scholarship Program, aims to create a system of vouchers to charter schools, to divert about $ 300 million from public schools.

 

We are not against business, let alone free enterprise, but if most charter schools are aimed to profit and contract specific services or come to subcontract the overall management of the school, then we could we believe that their purpose could be to privatize education and enrich one sector at the expense of public education and prosperity of teachers in Miami Dade County.

 

And that, financially speaking, is not healthy for our community.

 

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE

Economist and Journalist.

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$ 10.10, NEW MINIMUN WAGE ?

 

 

 

 

 

PUBLISHED BY EL NUEVO HERALD ON MARCH 21st, 2014

 

 

 

 

The last wage increase in Florida was 14 cents in January 2014, according to the automatic cost of living adjustment approved by voters in 2004; However, this increase is still far from the true current currency purchasing power; consumer goods purchased with $ 1.60 in 1968 would cost $ 10.20 today, according to the consumer price index.

 

Clearly, the current minimum wage of $ 7.93 an hour and $ 4.91 for those who earn most of their pay in the form of tips, is insufficient.

 

Many might think that an increase in the minimum wage would lead to a fiscal debacle underpinned by the inability of businesses to assume higher costs, which ultimately would lead to the bankruptcy of many and rising unemployment. Nothing is further from the truth.

 

According to research by UC Berkeley and University of Illinois, who are actually paying the consequences of inadequate wages are taxpayers; 73% of families in EE.UU., who receive up to $ 243 billion per year in benefits such as Medicaid, food stamps and "Earned Income Tax Credit", are currently working, but their income is so low that they qualify for these benefits .

 

Moreover, US companies who would be most impacted by a 27% increase in the minimum wage, would be those with high labor intensity, ie manufacturing. But what are the factories that remain in the United States?

 

The fast food industry, McDonalds type, is a major employer.  It is estimated that 12% of all businesses in America are franchise type with sales totaling 43% of total sales in the country.

 

In Florida an estimated 50,000 people work in this sector, of which 28,000 are under public assistance due to low income they receive.

 

How a major employer like this would support a wage increase?  There are two viable ways. Franchisees pay an average of 10% of their gross income to the owners of the brand.  Reducing that payment only 1% would be sufficient to offset this cost.

 

The other way would be to increase the selling price of hamburgers at 25 cents. The sales would be unaffected and spending will be covered.

 

Now, the benefits to the economy would be extraordinary. The Congressional Budget Office believes that raising the minimum wage will benefit 15%  of employees and 900,000 nationwide would no longer be poor.

 

According to the Comptroller of the State of New York, last year Wall Street firms offset their 165,200 employees with $ 26.7 billion bonds.  It is estimated that each extra dollar a low profile employee receives, benefits the economy by $ 1.21.  Instead, the same additional income for high-income person contributes only 39 cents to GDP.

 

According to the Department of Labor of the United States, by 2012 there were 214,000 people in Florida working with or below the minimum wage, not including overtimes, commission or tips.

 

If these people, along with a portion of the total 4.164 million hourly workers in Florida, you increase their salary to $ 10.10 per hour, the demand for goods and services would increase in the short term.

 

Supply needed to satisfy purchases will increase employment.  Some prefer saving to install their own businesses.  Retail sales will multiply.

 

For example, in New Jersey, they increased wage from $ 1.00 to $ 8.25 per hour.  In a short time more than 8,000 new jobs were created.

 

The state of Washington, for the past 15 years has been the leader among the highest minimum wage in the nation, having now $ 9.33 per hour. There the economic growth is 0.8%, the highest in the nation.

 

The State of Florida should not be left behind.  Raising the minimum wage is not only humanitarian but also is beneficial for all, the public and private sector. Go Ahead !!!

 

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE

Economist and Journalist

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UNUSABLE CUBAN RECIPE IN VENEZUELA

 

 

Published by El Nuevo Herald on February 28, 2014

 

 

 

 

In the late twentieth century, when President Rafael Caldera committed the historical aberration of pardoning coup Lieutenant Colonel Hugo Chavez, no one could imagine it was sealing the fate of a whole generation of Venezuelans.

 

For all it is known the fiscal deficit increased several times, the real unemployment exceeded 40% of the economically active population, crime rise to the top in the criminological world ranking, the judiciary can not make independent decisions, the National Electoral Council is fraudulent, the most important national decisions are taken in Havana, and even the President Nicolas Maduro may not be Venezuelan.

 

A once thriving country with serious investments in oil, natural gas, iron, aluminum and hydropower, now has to import most of their inputs and future oil production is committed to China, where much of the exhaust in next eight years has been paid in advance and obviously wasted.

 

All the government supposedly made for the people, just found it was exactly the opposite: today is worse than living in the Fourth Republic and extreme poverty has been unleashed.

 

Many offenders with extensive criminal record have joined the government with the purpose of seeking amazing important positions.

 

More amazing still is knowing that many of them have succeeded, becoming the armed wing of the state to subdue civilians by creating the famous "Rapid Action Brigades", "militia" and "collective", who not are nothing but armed groups that have the motorized "noble" mission quelling any protest, beating up, kidnapping, torturing and shooting unarmed people.

 

Everything is done in true Cuban style, including media censorship. 

 

This recipe for repression receiving Venezuela may not have the same drug effect it had on Cuba. On the island, when he won the so-called Revolution, which soon became bloody, there was no current technology, it was only the press, radio and TV,  beginning with the famous magazine Bohemia and then CMQ television, the media in the short term were confiscated and the Cuban population, for three generations, just got used to the mediated news.

 

In Venezuela the situation is diametrically opposed. With the freedom of expression that Venezuelans have always had, a drastic cut in this proceeding only further fuels the flame of rebellion, as it was found the day when Government took the signal of Radio Caracas TV;  protests were chained to national level.

 

Just now, tyrannies like Venezuela may silence the media in the country, but can not prevent the entry and exit of violent video by Facebook, Twitter and digital telephony.

 

Recently, the network is reporting an interesting video where Hugo Chavez stands, then, President Rafael Caldera can not stop general complaining of people, led by students. This is exactly what is happening in Venezuela today, only this time it is not tolerated. 

 

And it is the way communists are: when they are opposition, they protest in every way possible. When in power, not only do not allow protests, but strongly suppress and kill the protesters. The same principle of Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, known as Lenin.

 

Economist and Journalist 

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