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Monday, December 10, 2012

CHANCE AND HORSES

 
 
Published by El Nuevo Herald on November 28, 2012
 
 
When it comes to gambling, many immediately think of the lottery and casinos, which effects come to be not only a promising game, but also a form of entertainment for adults. However, there are other forms of entertainment where the game is also present and the odds of winning are much higher. Particularly, the races are a prime example that illustrates this statement.
While the chances of hitting the Florida Lotto are one in more than 22 million in horse racing are one among only twelve competitors. That is, if just twelve horses run, only one will win unless there is a tie, in which case there are two winners. More contrast is the Power Ball, which has a chance to win the grand prize, chosen from a total of 175 million possibilities.

 
In addition, in horse racing coinciding a number of factors absent in the lottery. For example, while the chances of hitting the lottery in 99% depend on luck, in the races the jockey, the trainer, the track conditions and the blood of horses are involved in making betting decisions. Unquestionably chance is important, but knowledge is helpful.

The economic crisis that has plagued the country in recent years has affected the racehorses industry. The proliferation of gaming crowd who have come to compete in this sector has decreased the volume of betting on horses.

The three racetracks to compete in the Great Miami, along with greyhound racing and Jai Alai, have accepted the proposed installation of casinos on their land to supplement their income. The historic racetrack Hialeah Park, hopes to complete by mid next year the launch of a thousand slot machines Vegas style, as part of an initial investment of $ 1,000 million to revitalize all areas adjacent to the racetrack, impacting the city of Hialeah by creating 8,000 direct and indirect jobs.

 
For the same economic crisis, the number of horses produced has decreased. This has affected the public spectacle of horseracing, with few specimens entered in each competition. For this reason, the state of Florida should re-regulate horse racing. In this way each racecourse will have its operating fixed dates. Thus, Gulfstream Park, Calder Race Course and Hialeah Park will enjoy their respective seasons, with all customers and the same horse universe, rotating for each racetrack.

 
This regulation is not only in the interest of all parties but in the creation and maintenance of jobs in each area and in the spectacle itself of horse racing.
 
BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE 
Economist and Journalist.

BRAMAN FACTOR: Oracle of Miami



 
Published by "Los Tiempos" Newspaper on August 2012

 
 
 
 
With a fortune estimated at $ 1,500 million, a son of immigrant Jews of 79 years called Norman Braman, has been for the last 30 years the city of Miami financial guardian and in truth, it is hard to find an economical, political and social recipe where this factor is not involved.
 
Nominated by President Ronald Reagan as commissioner of immigration in 1981, whose candidacy later withdrew, Braman has never exercised public positions. In 1994 the Governor of Maryland designated November 1 as the day of Norman Braman. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz, Braman granted an award for having contributed to bringing Art Basel to Miami, an event that is currently considered as the most important art fair in the U.S. and among the most prominent in the world.
 
Braman, after a successful business career in Philadelphia where he became owner of the Philadelphia Eagles Football franchise, was established in Miami in 1975 within the field of car sales reaching 23 agencies and having a large collection of art. Despite his personal success, Norman Braman to achieved greater notoriety for its vertical position in the management of public funds and everything that affects the prosperity of Greater Miami.
 
In 1982 he led a campaign against a movement that sought to finance, with a tax increase, the remodeling of the Orange Bowl Stadium. Finally, Mr. Joe Robbie built his Dolphin Stadium with their own resources. In 1999, he once again opposed to an increase in the sales tax supposedly intended to improve public transport. Three years later, with the same purpose, Mayor Alex Penelas sought intervention Braman not to carry ballot boxes half-cent increase this time, which ultimately was approved from 7% to 7.5% we know today. In 2008, Braman opposes a massive reconstruction plan of downtown Miami in the amount of $ 3,000 million. It also rejects the construction of a tunnel from I-395 to the Port of Miami for $ 1,000 million on the grounds that according to the law "Florida Sunshine-In Government Act", any early recruitment should be subject to a prior public announcement. A circuit judge rejected this argument and now the construction of the tunnel advances expected that the work is completed in May 2014. In 2011, Braman finance a successful campaign to oust Mayor of Miami-Dade Carlos Alvarez for his proposal to increase property taxes.
 
Currently Norman Braman's crusade is against the mega-casino to be built in Miami. He has attended several media interviews on the Anglo-Saxons and Spanish radio, reporting which highlights irrefutable statistics that dethrone Miami to Las Vegas as the gambling mecca but also acquire all negative numbers as are national records in foreclosures, unemployment and crime. In addition, plans to create an "American Riviera" in South Beach would be affected by this mega-casino. It is true that the French Riviera is very close to the Casino de Monte Carlo. But the 'Charm' of this small but stately casino proposed differs radically from Miami.
 
Not everything is pink for Norman Braman. In December 2008 he was the victim of the Ponzi scheme orchestrated by Bernard Madoff. Like many banks, institutions and individuals, Braman lost a considerable fortune in the largest financial scam in U.S.
 
Norman Braman, defined as "a fiscal conservative but a social liberal as" is having a battle  still pending. For fans of Baseball, Braman's opposition to the construction of the Marlins Stadium was painful.
 
If something negative should occur, making the Stadium in another 'white elephant' of the city, fulfilling the predictions of Mr. Norman Braman, will probably be called from then on 'The Oracle of Miami'
 
BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
 
Economist and journalist.

UNEMPLOYMENT IN EE.UU.


Published by "Los Tiempos" Newspaper, Julio 2012


One of the most important features that stand out in a down economy is a high rate of unemployment.

 
In recent months the rate has averaged 8.2% in the United States. However, for those aged between 20 and 24 years, that rate increases to 13.3%, which could be interpreted as an inability of the economy to absorb the young workforce recently joined the labor market. Obviously, if this trend continues, it could exacerbate unemployment in this segment which contrasts with ages between 45 and 54 years where unemployment is only 6.2%. From a demographic standpoint, this sector "aged" is the most productive and consequently is the largest generator of wealth. In other words, "old people is still supporting young ones"


There are two main reasons for the persistence of this sector "aged", medical advances that have extended the life of the worker thereby decreasing their mortality rate, and slowness of economy to create new jobs in the United States. Other factors are also involved. Very few new domestic manufacturing are establishing in USA due to comparative advantages, since is much more convenient to open factories in China and other Asian countries or in Mexico and other Latin countries.
Particularly in China, the wage gap is huge because in this country, hopefully, the employee earns the equivalent of a dollar an hour job.


Now comes the most interesting problems. We live in a market society where obviously the  entrepreneur seeks to maximize its profit. In this respect and because of freedom guaranteed by our system, the employer is free to build where he likes. But, who gives work to the U.S. labor force?
The army of pizza makers and gardeners are also filled.


If you pays to cut your lawn for your home or for pizza delivery, people who receive the money, are receiving an income but are not generating wealth. If you open a shoe factory, will need to buy the equipment and supplies, hire employees, bank loans and export handling if necessary. Around a factory, always set a series of wealth-generating activities. Therefore, it is necessary to manufacture in the U.S. This is important to arouse the interest of the businessmans, giving them wage and tax offset to be able to compete with foreign markets.

 
 
BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Economist and Journalist

The Demon Microchip

 
 
 
 
 
Published by El Nuevo Herald on July 23, 2012
 
 
 
 
 
In the last few months has been circulating on the Internet what appeared to be an apocalyptic version of health care reform, recently approved by the Supreme Court.  This cyberspace message, along with hundreds of interrelated rumors, flooded network concerning the possible adoption of a bill known as HR3200.
 
 According to these rumors spread, health care reform known as ObamaCare enacted mandatory implanting into the human body of biocompatible glass capsule length of 11.5 mm, slightly larger than a grain of rice.  This capsule known as Verichip Micro Transponder would be implanted in the hand of patients with all medical information required by insurance and healthcare institutions, such as current conditions and medication used, as well as age, geographic location and way of contacting the patient.
 
 Of course, this assumption implant in the human body generated a number of comments carried by the opponents to health care reform.  From the political point of view it was a way to control the population since information contained in the capsule reveal party affiliation, bank accounts and other important personal data.  From the religious point of view was probably the mark of the beast, as written in the chapter of the book of revelations 13:16.18. Even still people talks about the March 23, 2013, as the date on which this implementation will be legally required.
 
 Nothing is further from the truth. The proposal HR3200 was never passed by Congress and therefore was never made into law. Instead HR4872 Act was passed on 17 March 2010.  Neither the law nor approved proposal contemplated that a microchip or any device will be implanted in the human body for any reason.  Just what they did, was create a National Medical Device Registry that allows the Department of Health statistics keep medical devices used "in or on" a patient, such as a cardiac pacemaker.
 
As we can see, in spite of all the attempts made by different sectors to defeat ObamaCare, this law is a reality and will be in full force in 2014. It was time that the U.S. adopt universal health insurance as exists in most industrialized countries.
 
BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
 Economist and journalist.

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Saturday, November 24, 2012

 
 
 
El Historico Hipodromo de Hialeah - Benjamín F. DeYurre

by Hialeah Park on Monday, November 19, 2012 at 12:28pm ·

 


El hipódromo de Hialeah tiene mucha historia que contar, en la cuál ha sido protagonista principal.
 
En el año 1922 y bajo el nombre de Miami Kennel Club, el ahora hipódromo fué el primer circuito para carreras de galgos en EE.UU. El 15 de Enero de 1925, el hipódromo comienza a ofrecer el espectáculo de los reyes: competencias de caballos purasangre de carrera.
 
El gran huracán que azotó a la región en 1926 impulsó grandes cambios en el hipódromo de Hialeah. No se escatimó ningún esfuerzo en su rediseño. Fué así como las escaleras siguieron el diseño de los hipódromos de Ascot en Inglaterra y Deuville en Normandía. El paddock descubierto se asemeja al de Longchamp en Francia. Un tunel de acceso a la pista es similar al de Epson Downs en el Reino Unido. Las terrazas y barandas están inspiradas en el afamado casino de MonteCarlo. No en balde el hipódromo de Hialeah es considerado por los hípicos como el mas bello del mundo.
 
Yá para el 14 de Enero de 1932, el hipódromo se destacaba como uno de los sitios mas elegantes y concurridos en EE.UU.. Por esa fecha, el siempre innovador hipódromo de Hialeah, tuvo el honor de inaugurar la primera pista de hierba en EE.UU. También instaló el primer sistema totalizador de apuestas en el pais.
 
Personajes de talla mundial eran vistos a menudo en el hipódromo. Los duques de Windsor, Churchill, Sinatra, Truman y muchos otros visitaron repetidamente sus predios. Amelia Earhart, en cuyo honor se desarrolló el parque Amelia de Hialeah, en 1937 pronunció su discurso de despedida en el hipódromo, antes de desaparecer con su avioneta cuando pretendía ser la primera mujer en darle la vuelta al mundo piloteando un avión.
 
Los mas famosos caballos purasangre de carreras estuvieron en Hialeah. Entre ellos “Citation”, quién para seguir engrandeciendo la fama del hipódromo, fué el primer caballo en ganar un millón de dólares en EE.UU.. El imponente caballo ganó la triple corona y dejó un record de 27 carreras ganadas y dos segundos lugares en 29 intentos. Su memoria fué inmortalizada en una estatua de bronce, esculpida en Florencia-Italia, que actualmente permanece en los jardines del hipódromo como testigo mudo de un resplandor que continúa hoy en día.
 
En 1977 el criador y urbanista John Brunetti Sr. asumió el control del hipódromo de Hialeah con el firme propósito de preservar su historia y magnificencia, como corresponde a una institución listada en el Registro Nacional de Sitios Históricos de EE.UU.
 
Con el trancurrir de los años, muchos cambios económicos surtieron efecto en EE.UU.. La ciudad de Hialeah, con sus negocios y habitantes han tenido que enfrentar estos cambios. Un desempleo galopante ha azotado a Hialeah y zonas circundantes. Multitud de empresas, antaño florecientes en Hialeah, han desaparecido o trasladado sus operaciones a China u otros paises. Sin embargo, el hipódromo de Hialeah ha permanecido fiel a su ciudad y a sus habitantes, gracias a la perseverancia de sus oficiales, en especial el Sr, Brunetti. También, importantes personajes de la comunidad, como el comisionado condal Esteban Bovo Jr., el Alcalde de Hialeah, Carlos Hernández y el ex-alcalde de la ciudad Julio Robaina, así como otros oficiales electos, han prestado toda su pericia y relaciones para ayudar al hipódromo de Hialeah.
 
Por la misma situación económica que ha venido atravesando el pais, los hipódromos, canódromos y Jai Alais, se han visto en la necesidad de complementar sus ingresos con la instalación de Casinos de juego en sus predios. El hipódromo no Hialeah no es una excepción y yá tiene en marcha obras en construcción para albergar en sus inicios 900 máquinas tragamonedas como parte de una inversión estimada en $1.000 millones, previéndose su apertura para mediados del año 2013.
 
Desde el año 2009, el hipódromo de Hialeah viene ofreciendo al público las famosas carreras de caballos cuarto de milla. Estos corpulentos caballos especializados en distancias cortas proporcionan un espectáculo muy emocionante por sus llegadas electrizantes. Normalmente, los resultados de las apuestas son muy atractivos y por ello el público acude masivamente.
 
Realmente, en la última década, ha existido una fuerte competencia entre todos los hipódromos del estado de La Florida. Y todos los que tienen una temporada de carreras con caballos cuarto de milla, por ley estatal, pueden aceptar las apuestas “simulcast” de otros hipódromos nacionales. Inclusive, hasta caballos cuarto de milla que participan en rodeos, al parecer califican bajo esta ley, que al momento de escribir este artículo, aún no ha sido sancionada por la corte.
 
Lo que en definitiva sería un éxito económico, es un consenso de los otros dos hipódromos cercanos a Hialeah en un área de 50 millas, en el sentido que cada hipódromo tenga unas fechas exclusivas de operación. Esto es debido a que la población equina no es suficientemente grande como para llenar un mínimo de competidores en cada carrera, si es que los hipódromos, incluyendo Hialeah, compiten en una misma temporada.
 
Como vemos, el resplandor y la historia del hipódromo de Hialeah, continúa. Con inconveniencias y dificultades, contra viento y marea, el hipódromo de Hialeah vislumbra un porvenir extraordinario. No es fácil, pero lo está logrando. Y las cosas buenas se hacen esperar. Ese es el eterno e histórico hipódromo de Hialeah.


Monday, November 5, 2012

HOW TO DEVELOP A DEMOCRATIC CUBA

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Published in El Nuevo Herald on Junio 03, 2012
 
 
After long periods of dictatorships, usually appears longest periods of Democracy, as in Venezuela after Juan Vicente Gómez, Portugal after Salazar and Spain after Franco. Only a successor, not monarchical, to inherit power in North Korea on the death of his father Kil Il Sung. Although the situations are different for Asian idiosyncrasies often worship their idols, in Cuba until now there is a successor in the figure of Raul Castro, who because of age will not remain for long in power. Raul said the following at the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party held last year "..... I assume my last task of never permitting the return of the capitalist regime." Despite these statements, following the continuity of history, it is expected that the system disappears with Raul and a capitalist development model is established on the island.

In Cuban society there are four clearly defined group, those with a home that does not want to miss when private ownership returns. Those who have been beaten or killed civilians and always be fearful of justice. Officers in charge of state agencies that have borrowed to the country and do not generate resources to repay the loans.
The military who after graduation, have had to take to tip beatings of civilians, including the Ladies in White, and filled to the brim the Cuban unhealthy and dark dungeons.

Actually there is a consensus that predicts the fall of communist regime by implosion, repressed to pop the widespread discontent among the people. There are two possible scenarios involving these four groups; took power a board of civilians or take a board of military power.
In either case, a number of measures must be adopted by the board of the moment: 1. - Accept the nomination of political parties and convene presidential elections, provincial and municipal in the next 90 days. 2. - Reinstate the rule of law in its entirety, that is, reform the penal code, reissued titles, registers and Cadastre. 3. - The construction of public works will require a capital of approximately $ 100,000 million. In this regard the Board will authorize the issuance of sovereign bonds that quote in the capital market. Also accept (but not manipulate) new low-interest loans from the World Bank, the IDB and the IMF, as well as international aid from many countries such as USA who through the Helms-Burton has promised to help with $ 10,000 million for a Democratic Cuba. 4. - Eliminate the ineffective internal circulation of Cuban peso and the convertible 'Chavito'. Instead, before establishing its own currency, the dollar should begin to regenerate faster monetary policy. Yet despite the weaknesses that can display the dollar by the projected rise of Chinese Yuan, the two million Cubans living in the U.S. who maintain bank accounts in that currency, are a strong endorsement of the business in Cuba.5. - Disown the current debt and leave Cuba cleanly from scratch. This debt consists of the $ 30,000 million to Cuba due to the Paris Club (17 European countries, Canada, USA and Japan), the $ 27,000 million convertible rubles due to the former USSR and more than $ 15,000 million owed to Venezuela. 6. - No evicted from their homes to current tenants, but will establish a minimum income for those living without paying. The amount of such income shall be deposited in banks to be claimed by those who retain the original title. A controversial legislation be adopted to avoid eviction in case of sale of the property. 7. - Decree a general amnesty to public offenses, always and when there are not proven crimes  like the murder of Brothers to the Rescue, or the slaughter of civilians in the tugboat 13 de Marzo. 8. - Prohibit possession of firearms to civilians. This will avoid possible vendettas for past abuses. 9. - Appoint a committee of 'notables' consists of 13 local characters and exile, whose real interest is the re-inclusion of Cuba on the world market. These 'significant' economic interests should not have, themselves or associated material recovery in Cuba. As expected, massive capital inflow to the island, the main function of this committee 'remarkable' will accept and publish tenders for media: Rebuilding entire blocks currently collapsed, completely remodel the historic centers of cities, Revamping beaches and other tourist centers, build public works such as hospitals, schools, roads, bridges and barracks.

Cuba now and for many years, has been in bankruptcy. While countries like the USSR and Venezuela now have funded, along with remittances from exiles, the reality is that the economy collapsed pemanece, much more so than the disastrous Greece, who, despite having the same number of inhabitants (11 million ) exported a value of $ 21,000 million while Cuba alone exported $ 3,300 million last year. No matter what attempts are made to look like the present for the economies of China and Vietnam, with its unprecedented plan to sack 500,000 civil servants, just make everything worse by the inability of the system to absorb those jobs. Slowly, very slowly, the pressure continues to rise in the pan, until boiling point such that inevitably burst. 
Then, begin construction of a new Cuba, a Cuba that will reclaim its previous place of honor as the foremost Hispanic country in Latin America.

One aspect to be considered only at the beginning: this is the euphoria of the exiles and tourists visiting the island, which will shift the board's inability to manage infrastructure and vehicle fleet to meet foreign demand. Even cruises will begin offering itineraries to Cuba. Indeed, the future is flattering, very flattering.
BENJAMIN F DeYURRE
Economist and journalist

The Business of renouncing U.S. Citizenship

 
 
 
                                      
Published in El Nuevo Herald on May 24, 2012
 
 
 
 
 
Studying in one of the best private schools in Miami and famed Harvard University.  Co-founding Facebook and amassing a fortune of $ 2.880 million. That's all very well, except the fact renouncing U.S. citizenship.  This is the case of Brazilian Eduardo Saverin, 30.
 
 After this country that has given him everything: home, studies and fortune apparently found no better way to thank the sort to give up U.S. citizenship. Of course, there are always studies, but to fortune, to that it does not waiver.
 
 Saverin argues that U.S. law Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) requires banks to report foreign accounts movement of U.S. citizens abroad.  If banks do not report these balances will be subject to a penalty of 30% of the profits of U.S. financial assets.  Likewise, if the Americans owners of these accounts do not report any activity that exceeds $ 50,000, shall be fined with 40% of the undeclared amount.
 
 All this seems logical.  However, Saverin has been living in Singapore for the past few years and this is a country that does not tax capital gains, unlike the United States, which imposes a minimum of 15% on such dividends.  Moreover, the implementation of FATCA will be completed by 2014 and so far only France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK have accepted this agreement.
 
 In response to this move by Saverin, Democratic Sens. Bob Casey and Chuck Schumer are proposing a new law known as Ex-Patriot, by which it will impose a 30% tax on capital gains to those who renounce U.S. citizenship .  They are also physically prevented from entering U.S. territory.
 
 Perhaps due to future full implementation of the law of FATCA bank reports,  the renunciation of U.S. citizenship has increased from 235 cases in 2008 to over 1,700 in 2011. Even, a Geneva-based organization called American Citizens Abroad, representing six million Americans abroad, has launched a campaign to repeal the law FATCA because since last year, major European banks with operations in Switzerland have begun to close U.S. accounts with activities in the capital market.
 
 If we see, the renunciation of U.S. citizenship is a business, should be treated as such. En ese sentido lo que es igual no es trampa. In that sense what is the same is not trap.  United States has the right to defend itself and protect its values.
 
 Economist and Journalist.

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Friday, November 2, 2012

INDIVIDUAL FREEDOMS IN USA


 
Published by El Nuevo Herald on November 1, 2012


One of the basics of our system is the individual freedom that moves the springs drives of entrepreneurs. That's why many advocate the elimination of regulations that supposedly are suffocating the private sector. However, the question that comes up is more How can you grow an economy where the private sector does not offer jobs and the banking sector does not lend?

Over the years there has been systematic relocation of U.S. production factors to other countries, particularly China. Most U.S. investors have placed their resources outside the country and have advised their clients and associates the same proceeding.
If the majority of private resources are outside the country, how can we continue with a sustained economic recovery?

Most U.S. financial obligations are held by Chinese and Arab. The bonds of U.S. public debt have been mostly acquired by China and Arab countries. The payment of this debt at maturity, draining public resources that in turn, should be used to finance domestic growth. How can we deal with the trade requirements of China and Arab countries without enrage them?
Could this situation be a possible influence in the U.S. debt Refinancing?




Now, we know that jobs aren't being created and loans aren't being given. We also know that the private sector has outside its resources and the public sector is mortgaged to other countries.
We wonder whether some regulations are justified to help our country.
-In U.S. business can earn a million dollars a day and having a single employee or none.
-In U.S. exists freedom to opening a business anywhere in the world.
-In U.S. funds can be placed in any other country of your choice.

It is time that we realize that economic model we know has to change. Without affecting individual freedoms ever, we must recognize that certain measures should be taken in order U.S. continue its global hegemonic role.
We can not keep allowing some practices that are detrimental to our country and are made under the individual freedoms given to us.

BENJAMIN F.
DeYURRE.
Economist and Journalist



Monday, October 22, 2012





ROMNEY Y EL ESCANDALO DE LA TASA LIBOR



Justo antes de la reciente inauguración de las Olimpiadas en Londres, Mitt Romney asistió en esa ciudad a una exclusiva cena de contribución de campaña donde el cubierto alcanzó la suma de $75.000 por persona. Esta noticia no pasó desapercibida, no solamente por su astronómico monto, sino por el hecho de haber sido patrocinada mayormente por los principales ejecutivos del grupo financiero Barclays, quien en el pasado mes de Junio acordó pagar una multa de $450 millones. Este monto fué impuesto por los reguladores de EE.UU. y el Reino Unido para resolver las escandalosas acusaciones de que ese grupo alteró la tasa de interés internacional LIBOR para su propio beneficio.



El parlamento Británico, en su moción 399 del 16 de Julio, 2012, declaró que los principales ejecutivos de Barclays hasta esa fecha habían recolectado $927.000 para la campaña de Romney. En esa misma declaración escrita, el Parlamento Británico hace un llamado a Barclays para que “cese inmediatamente la recolección de fondos para candidatos políticos y se dedique de lleno a recuperar la confianza del público en el sistema bancario” Los ejecutivos actuales de Barclays repondieron por escrito que todas esas actividades políticas han sido realizadas por los empleados norteamericanos de Barclays.



La tasa LIBOR (London InterBank Offered Rate) es ampliamente utilizada en casi todas las hipotecas, prétamos bancarios y transacciones financieras en general. Por ejemplo, cuando un comprador de casa en EE.UU. pregunta a como está el interés del momento, usualmente la respuesta que obtiene es 'la tasa LIBOR mas un tanto por ciento adicional'.



Como consecuencia de este gigantesco fraude comprobado, donde el renunciado jefe oficial de operaciones de Barclays (COO) admitió haber falsificado la tasa LIBOR, el Presidente de la junta directiva (Chairman) y el Presidente Ejecutivo (CEO) también renunciaron a sus posiciones en el pasado mes de Julio.



La manipulación de la tasa LIBOR comenzó en el 2007 y la magnitud del fraude es de tal envergadura, que aunque expertos han estimado una responsabilidad inicial de $176 mil millones considerando a la LIBOR 'subestimada' en 0.4% entre el 2008 y el 2009, se espera en todo el mundo una avalancha masiva de demandas interpuestas por aseguradoras, corredoras, inversionistas, etc. Esto sin duda, es una pésima noticia para la estabilidad del sistema económico mundial.



La ley de elecciones de EE.UU. contempla que los candidatos acepten contribuciones de ciudadanos norteamericanos que residan en el exterior. El Vice Chairman actual de Barclays afirma “Barclays no es políticamente partidista, no hace donaciones políticas ni influye sobre sus empleados”. Hasta Mayo 2012 la contribución de los empleados de Barclays ha sido $234.650 para Romney y $34.800 para Obama. Es importante destacar que la campaña de Obama no permite que lobistas registrados le hagan donaciones



Existen votantes que siendo conservadores no apoyan las políticas económicas Republicanas, por lo tanto el término 'conservador' no pertenece exclusivamente al partido Republicano. Tal vez el candidato Mitt Romney pudo ser un poco mas conservador cuando aceptó asistir a ese evento de captación de fondos en Londres. Probablemente el candidato desconocía el escándalo financiero por la manipulación de la tasa LIBOR



BENJAMIN F. De YURRE

Economista y Periodista

Monday, April 30, 2012

OIL SPECULATORS

Published in El Nuevo Herald on April 20, 2012



In the U.S., in 2003, barrels of oil were traded at $ 30, in July 2008 that price was $ 147 and gasoline was supplied, as today, to a national average of about $ 4 a gallon. There can be many causes of the rising cost of fuel is, known, for example, that wars in the Persian Gulf have decreased production in countries such as Iraq, Kuwait and Libya. It is also said that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did not want to over-exploit the oil fields and therefore have limited extraction. Two huge countries like China and India have been increasing their consumption. From a purely economic standpoint, this is a problem of supply and demand: if the supply decreases and demand increases, oil price increases. However, there are examples showing that the presence of speculators in oil negotiations is primarily responsible for the increase in the price of gasoline in the United States.
In a congressional hearing in June 2008, several financial experts testified before the House Energy and Commerce Committee that "eliminating excessive speculation in oil futures market, could reduce the price of gasoline by 50%."

That same month, the House of Representatives passed a bill called the Energy Markets Emergency Act of 2008 whereby the Mercantile Futures Commission "would have the required authority to order the immediate brake to excessive speculation, price distortion, sudden or unreasonable fluctuations in the same or any other illegal activity to cause market disruption, preventing this reflect the true balance between supply and demand. "

On July 25, 2008, the Republicans blocked the bill in the Senate, 60 votes were needed and only obtained 50 with 43 votes against. Republican senators argued then that it should legislate to increase oil output by allowing more drilling off the coast, as well as a full development in the vast territories on the West Coast oil.

Despite the continued reports of excessive speculation in energy markets, Futures Trade Commission (CFTC) refused to take any action, for example, in the quarter July to September 2008, three major investment banks with a presence in Wall Street, obtained a profit of $ 35.000 million on oil futures contracts. With a purely speculative activity like this, you get a brutal gain in three months. The main problem is the vendors and / or operators of funds to future buyers of this market. It may be that sometimes sellers are buyers and vice versa, that is, it's like to charge and be the change yourself. This lends itself to many interpretations.

The activities in the oil futures markets are many and complex. Normally, there are two types of investors: those who really want to make sure that the purchase price does not vary too much (these are mainly refineries), the others are speculators, who typically are banks and stockbrokers.

These hedge funds accepting initial deposit work known as margin. For example, the investor wants to buy $ 20 million in crude and deposits a million in cash. If low, it is deducted from the million. If the price raises, it is added to the million . In other words, the investor freeze the price. Wins when increases, loses if decreases.
For 2009 the oil futures market traded 1000 million barrels a day, but world oil production was only 85 million, which means that over 90% were speculators who renegotiated the barrels.

Since the actual cost of extracting a barrel is on average $ 11, priced at $ 100 or more is a real speculative abuse.
Although in July 2010, it was adopted a new regulation, (The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act) requiring that all directors in the futures market with at least $ 150 million capital are federally registered, in reality has happened to most of the said directors, they have declared only $ 100 million capital. In this way they will be only under the supervision of that state and not under the federal law.

The solution is to ban the involvement of speculators in futures markets. The other solution is unlikely because we live in a free market economy; that oil is not quoted on any market on U.S. or a single federal agency is responsible for setting the selling price to refineries. Thus, the price of gasoline will represent its real value.
Benjamin F. DeYurre
Economist and Journalist

Monday, April 9, 2012

REPUBLICAN ECONOMIC OFFER


Published in El Nuevo Herald on April 04, 2012

Barring a phenomenon, between the two Republican, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, is the candidate that will challenge President Obama in the upcoming elections. Each has its platform in which the economy plays a role. Then, I will outline what are their main economic proposals and how they compare with the deals of the Obama Administration.

Mitt Romney

Increase the federal budget to reach $ 19.5 billion. Considers that citizens have lost about $ 11 trillion in net worth. This means that each year Americans spend $ 400 billion less. Even with this consideration, Romney opposed the stimulus plan Obama signed $ 787 billion in February 2009 and known as American Recovery and Reinvestment Act . In other words, the candidate seeks to increase public spending, but rejects President Obama wants to increase it.
Concerning the real estate market, Romney is in favor of not intervening in foreclosure processes, letting them run their course and hit bottom, then allow investors to buy these properties, repair, and then renting and re-enter the market . This differs radically from the recent agreement by the Department of Justice in the Obama Administration with major banks holding mortgages in the country, through which these banks modify loans by $ 25 billion to those homeowners whose debt is greater than the current value of their homes . This is preventing a massive foreclosure that was the next to appear.

While Republicans opposed the passage of a law criminalizing the importation of Chinese goods if China came to see that artificially manipulating its currency to encourage exports, Romney has said that to eliminate the unequal trade between the U.S. and China, is able to resist this manipulation of currency and raise tariffs on Chinese imports. However, Romney was against imposing sanctions on China for its trade abuses in 2011-2012.

Romney agrees not to raise taxes. As governor of Massachusetts, Romney supported the second round of tax cuts proposed and approved by President George W. Bush. This position is diametrically opposed to the offer proposed by Democrats to raise taxes on the wealthiest class, which constitutes 2% of the population but accounts for over 90% of businesses in general.

Rick Santorum

Intelligently, more blame former President Bush to President Obama for the current crisis. According to Santorum, "Bush set the precedent and this was a bad precedent."

Santorum is in favor of reducing government spending and simplify the tax code, but proposes to completely eliminate corporate taxes for manufacturers who repatriate their profits to the U.S. or other countries. Of course, it would be even more important for the U.S. if these manufacturers were located in U.S. territory and not in China or other countries. In this regard the administration of President Obama has said that those companies that manufacture on American soil will be entitled to take-offs and tax exemptions.

Santorum also said in the Wall Street Journal that "to restore U.S. Competitiveness, all other corporate taxes should be lowered to half and set at a flat rate of 17.5%." During a recent televised speech tycoon Warren Buffet on CNBC, it declared, "is a myth that U.S. corporate taxes are high and are strangling American competitiveness." By contrast, according to Buffett, the corporate tax rate in the U.S. is among the lowest in the industrialized countries, reaching in 2011 an actual cash value of only 12%. Indeed, Buffett deepens stating that U.S. corporate profits have been the highest in the last 50 years since they were 10.1% of gross domestic product, which refers to the value of goods and services produced in the country officially.

Many may agree with the conservative, for example, against abortion and gay marriage, and vice versa. This means there may be conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans. However, the focus in the coming presidential elections will be the economy. As are the times, with unemployment soaring by shifting technological and continuous creation of American jobs to China and other countries, imposing a solution, although not to everyone's taste, is necessary. In this sense, the Republican economic offer does not seem an appropriate response.

Sometimes the regulations are necessary to heading ships. The air and sea traffic has its own regulations, if carried a heavy load slows the trip. If you spend a lot during the journey passengers would be unhappy. However, the most important thing is that the ship will not sink or fall off the plane.

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Economist and journalist.

Monday, March 12, 2012

THE BANKING CRISIS

Published in El Nuevo Herald on March 02, 2012



Among the major problems affecting the world economy is the performance of banks. Closely linked to the activities of a capitalist market, the banking sector, in both U.S. and Europe, has been undermined  its volume of operations, mainly in their ability to lend.
For a long period of moderation, 1985-2006, banks profits were coming  expressed by the difference between their lending and deposit rates. That is, banks charge higher interest on loans they grant, that by having to pay interest to savers for the money they place in them. Since banks have greatly reduced its loan portfolio in the U.S., they have had to propose innovative ways to generate revenue, such as a $ 6.00 fee for people, no customers, who  redeem a check in their offices.
They have also increased the discounts for using debit cards to other networks unaffiliated to the issuer bank.
Banks typically use a significant portion of public deposits to generate income. Regularly, they placed those funds in the capital market to earn higher interest rates in the short term. They also make other investments in diverse businesses such as real estate. Perhaps the most decisive factor in this current financial crisis is that banks have increased too much its assets  while its capital has remained virtually unchanged. In other words, banks have continued to use public money to acquire more and more properties. And this exponential increase of their assets has been to satisfy the appetite of its shareholders, who naturally seek a greater return on their investment. Now, why is so important that banks increase their capital too? Because if there is a drop in the capital market, the bank would have resources to absorb that loss without investors and savers are affected, even though the existence of deposit insurance protection, which is very
limited.
Banks regularly, when they have many assets, they make bond issues secured or guaranteed by other assets. These bonds raise funds from the public but commit the bank issuing such bond, who have to pay the face value of this document at its due date. In 2007, the rating agency Standard and Poor's and Moody's awarded the highest category (AAA) to many bond issues considered as Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). With this high rating, which virtually guaranteed the payment of these bonds at maturity, investors turned to the market by purchasing the bonds that turned out to be mostly a fiasco because the guarantees they had, were more than 50% mortgages finishing in foreclosure. This is part of the famous "toxic debt" held by banks and perhaps the main reason that drove the economic crisis, that also could be called the biggest mistake known in economic history. To compensate for this error, it can be argued that it was difficult to predict the collapse of the real estate market.
However, one could also say that all bubbles burst, and this was a housing bubble.
The current crisis has many sides and in it the role of banks is essential. Recently the Obama administration reached an agreement for $ 25,000 million with the Banking Association through which, the most important banks holding mortgages, provide loan modifications to customers whose debts exceed the present value of their homes. Many questions will arise concerning unemployment, income or credit history. However, decisions must be made to prevent the collapse of the economy. The Government is trying to create jobs in U.S. instead of in China. It is trying to be more benevolent or modify the Credit Bureaus. The trading is becoming more transparent.
The banks in turn are limiting salaries and juicy bonuses to their executives to be thus higher dividends from its shares.
Even facing this crisis, with medium-term solutions, banks and financial system will do well, by overcoming market failures, but emphasizing once again that the best known system is Capitalism, where toughness and interest are the gear
that moves the machinery generating productive jobs and prosperity.


BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Economist and Journalist