UNITED STATES: THE MIRROR OF THE WORLD

                                         Published by El Nuevo Herald on Nov. 25, 2015





A popular saying goes: "When America is cold, the other countries have pneumonia." 

This applies not only in the most acute economic crisis that the world has known, as are those generated under the leadership of Presidents Herbert Hoover in 1929 and George W. Bush in 2008, it also applies to situations such as terrorism and immigration, where what happens in the US seems to be reflected as a mirror image to other countries.

Indeed, the crisis known as the crash of 1929 was in global scale. The lack of production, widespread shortages, the explosion of unemployment, mass bankruptcy of large factories and the disappearance of famous trademarks were the main features of the crisis.

USA being the main producer and exporter, expected that global trade would decline significantly, and thus economic activity in general.

So, an improvement of Economy, framed in theories of John Maynard Keynes English, were necessary to steer the market activity in the world again.

These theories simply justified the intervention in monetary and fiscal policy in the US, which came expressed in different measures taken by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, known as the "New Deal" and among them were the creation of Social Security and the establishment of the minimum wage, that over the years have served as an example for many countries.

In situations of international terrorism, attacks in other parts of the world have increased, after the US has suffered a similar action. The slaughter of the Twin Towers in 2001, known as 9/11, seems to have generated a shock wave around the world.

After many aftershocks followed, for example, the night club in Bali, Indonesia, 2002, 202 people; Madrid train, 2004, 191 people; London Underground, 2005, 52 deaths; attacks in Mumbai-India, 2008, 164 dead, and a few days ago, the attacks in Paris, 129 dead.

9/11 genocide was painful to an entire nation, seems to have woken up in a macabre sadism in  terrorists to attack public places with large public attendance.

In turn, 9/11 caused a dramatic change in security measures around the world. New technologies made their appearance and inspection at ports and airports reached new levels.

Also, the immigration problem in the United States has had its foreign repercussions.

In recent years it has been emphasizing formalize a comprehensive immigration reform that would contemplate a solution, not only for those who have come to the US, but for those who have yet to do so.

The United Nations defines as migrants who for more than a year have lived outside their country of origin; Under this concept, in 2013, 232 million international migrants were recorded.

Of that number, nearly half have migrated only to ten countries, although the US is the favorite with 46 million registered.

US immigrants have doubled from 1990 to 2013. That meant other countries have followed US doubling its foreign population in the same period, including Germany, UK, Canada, Australia, Spain and the UAE.

The theme around immigration reform in the United States was reflected in the increase of migrants crossing the Mediterranean, which grew from 50,000 in 2011 to over 225,000 in 2014. Most of them are from African countries and their destination Home is Italy.

People displaced by the civil war in Syria are almost half the population and have taken refuge in neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan, although Syria still remain 8 million people homeless.

Still, the most important immigrant corridor in the world remains the border between Mexico and Texas. Indeed, they are currently trying to reach this border over 1,000 Cubans who come from Ecuador in a long journey that has been truncated in Nicaragua, a country that has refused to continue their march that group.

A country has the choice to accept or not to give shelter to refugees, but should not deny a pass to cross its territory. That is inhuman.

As the world mourns for other nationalities, so they should do also for suffered Cubans, who have endured a dictatorship of 56 years, the longest in modern history.

As we see, we have the honor of living in the world's most important country, one that dictates the guidelines then imitated by other countries.

Help him with ideas like creating American civic universities in other countries, which not only offer classes in business and technology, but also give a sample of our way of life in America, our values ​​and our constitutional democracy.

This will also propagate all the positive aspects that the US has to offer and, therefore, would be imitated by those who have not yet done.

Undoubtedly, it is a smart investment.

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Economist and journalist.

POLITICAL MYOPIA IN CONSUMER ABUSE

                                          Published by El Nuevo Herald on Nov 08, 2015

Cable TV company is continuously stalking customers to increase their prices. Customers should call every four months because they find that the price is increasing.

If you fall behind in payment, they charge $ 10 plus $ 6 for an automatic reconnection. Everything is complicated when phoning the company. Ask for the billing department, just do not answer the phone. If you you press the phone extension to change or remove the services, nobody takes the phone.

In other words, it is a real abuse to the consumer, who has to endure such abuse.

Of course, there is the option to choose automatic payments with your credit card or checkbook. But in truth, we have to be insane to provide this information to someone you can not be reached then.

Obviously, there are other providers, including satellite, which will offer promotional prices to 1st customers, but then fall into the same, that is, you do not have salvation.

Another important and very worrying aspect today is the subsidized health market, where many companies traded health insurance. In the last months, Insurance companies are putting many obstacles to the procedures prescribed by specialists.

At first, the request for authorization are finally "received" by insurance 20 days after being sent by the specialist doctor. In many cases denied authorization for the procedure because certain rules patterned themselves were not fulfilled.For example, for a MRI, they claim not to have received the X-rays previously made to the patient. Also, for certain MRI they require a monthly rate of previous physical exercise.

To minimize this negative effect, they offer an appeals process, whose rules you must submit.At the end of that process, if you are still alive, it may be that you see your authorization finally approved.

In other words, it seems that insurance companies are denying medical procedures to patients covered by health market known as Obamacare. It would take only a proper investigation, to discuss government funding they are getting those companies to provide these services.

Because if an insurance company is involved in the open market health, they must provide coverage to patients, given that they are being compensated for their services.

As in all beginnings, there are problems that must be dissipated. Among these problems is the presence of tricksters always seeking to make their fortunes at the expense of human sacrifice.

An internal and external audit of the attached health insurance market regulated by the ACA (Afordable Care Act) is imposed.

The most interesting of the abuses we suffer in the US is the indifference of most politicians; Unfortunately, it happens that many of these traditional and renowned corporations finance political campaigns. And many government ombudsmen, just seem to be myopic and fail to see the abuses committed daily against the majority of the population.

We know and understand how our system works, which we support because by stimulating the entrepreneurial human spirit, put the world in motion, creating jobs and generating welfare works.

But by believing in our system and respect it, that is why we need legislators who just really support the majority, not the minority.

Not only do we worry about our bank accounts grow, and to increase excessive and corporate income indefinitely to achieve higher stock dividends at the end of each fiscal year.

We must also worry because consumers should be received a service honest and rewarding, mainly because they are who maintaining businesses, buying their products and / or services.

So, in this way our Democracy is preserved.

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Economist and journalist.

POPE FRANCISCO AND BILL GATES

Published by El Nuevo Herald on Sept. 27, 2015

In his recent speech on Capitol Hill, the Pope argued, among other things, to combat poverty and disease using all available resources, including technological advances. Bill Gates certainly exercises this humanitarian work for years.

Never another Pontiff had expressed in the same way that the pope Francisco.

He declared himself as an immigrant. This is neither more nor less than an antidote to the poison spread by Donald Trump.

He called for better control of weapons, which end up in the wrong hands with innocent lives.

He said that a golden rule is to monitor and support human life at all stages of their development. This determined its position regarding the death penalty and abortion.

He expressed the urgent need to combat poverty, unsanitary and dangerous climate change.

He emphasized that the entrepreneurial individual must be eligible for aid, because people like them are those that generate employment, improve and change the world.

Entrepreneurs are really the quintessential job creators and effectively validate capitalism as the best known system; Indeed, in those places where capitalism is absent, poverty, repression and widespread crime they are present.

The founder of Microsoft, Bill Gates, exemplifies the successful businessman, concerned about combating poverty, while fighting the endemic scourges using their vast resources, including technology, of course.

Since the United Nations launched its Millennium Development Goals in 2000, Bill Gates has been a determining factor in the successful achievement of the same, namely: in the last 15 years extreme poverty has been halved; two billion people have clean water; 43 million go to school; AIDS infection has decreased by 40%

Smallpox and malaria were practically eradicated by Gates.Similarly, polio has decimated by 75%.

The vision changed when Gates with his wife Melinda began to travel by poor countries. Realizing that one billion people still live without electricity and estimating that by 2050 the demand for food will increase by 60%, he decided to get involved fully in the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations.

Today, Gates is investing billions of dollars in clean energy innovations, free carbon dioxide, which would help improve climate change while combating poverty by reducing the cost of transportation, electricity and use of fertilizers.

Undoubtedly, incentives for innovation funded by Gates have decreased the costs of photovoltaic solar cells and manufacturing have become cheaper for batteries that retain that energy.

At the same time, Gates also recently created two corporations: Global Disease Burden, a company that uses information from all the world researchers to fight particular diseases; and Global Citizens, a portal that aims to reduce poverty in all its forms.

As we see, the statements of the Holy Father on Capitol Hill have their followers.

It's not just about making money. For our system endures is necessary to contribute to the environment in all its aspects, that is; better living conditions for people, in other words, wages in line with actual costs, reasonable access to health services and an appropriate retreat for your retirement years.

And as the most important scientist of recent times, Stephen Hawking, "to save the world, each must tell others that our goal is to eradicate poverty and protect the environment," he said.

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE

Economist and journalist.

WHO WON THE DEBATES ?

                              Published by El Nuevo Herald on Oct 16, 2015

Many argue that the debate between Republican presidential candidates far exceeded in television tuned to the recent Democratic debate.

It is indeed difficult to have such a colorful candidate as Donald Trump. Voters in both parties, independent immigrants, newcomers, women, gays and tourists lined up in front of public and private televisions to watch and listen as each new slapstick wielded by this individual.

You could say that Trump won the Republican debate, a fact that certainly corroborates his stay as the absolute leader in all polls.

His fiery words against illegal immigrants, its clear rejection to the use of the Spanish language in the US and its position in relation to women, generate precisely that effect on the harmony of the debate, as all expect to hear every time a new barbarism uttered by this billionaire.

For most viewers, Trump is a show in which many scoff or laugh. So it remains at the top of the polls, which of course is not the same as exercising the voting on election day.

The other Republican candidates, particularly Jeb Bush, ably appear to have dropped their guard; They wait for the epithets used by Trump or the speed reached crashing do wear out.

The Democratic debate also had a high estimated at more than 25 million people tuned. (Estimated just before real numbers)

Although to many young the winner was Bernie Sanders, the more focused balanced candidate, was certainly Hillary Clinton what makes her the real winner of the debate.

Hillary was cunningly defended by Sanders since her harassment has been for something as simple as her emails, when in the nation there are such serious problems as the paltry minimum wage and the continuous creation of American jobs overseas.

The former mayor of Baltimore and former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley issued a speech anthology in his closing remarks. Clearly referring to Trump Republican debate and stressed that "there has not been spoken against immigrants, Hispanics or women"

US policy is an integral part of daily living. Hence the impact of the televised debates. Of course, the voters win when they have a chance to see the public positions of their candidates and their reactions when confronted.

Politicians win when they see the mistakes they made, which tries not to repeat in future discussions.

The parties win when polishing their candidates in every debate and make out the right message.

But those who actually earn more are TV channels who have the privilege to transmit the debates; indeed this prime time is highly prized by advertisers who pay exorbitant amounts to reach that segment of the population that is so important to their interests.

It turns out that most things are framed by an economic benefit. Whenever you come to power to dominate the economic base, which is the support of everything.

If you take the power under the cultural-ideological level (read feudal monarchs or religious lords), control of the economy is achieved.

If power is achieved through legal and political field (ie elections, coups and dictatorship), the ultimate aim is to manipulate financial resources.

In other words, the management of funds is usually what people sought, and certainly that's the nature of our system, so far the best known.Therefore, the discussions were, are and will always be a business.

And the ends have historically been negative in every respect. And both parties have their extremists, obviously. Do they have a chance to win the election? Probably not, according to the rule; However, every rule has its exception.

Benjamin F. DeYurre

Economist and Journalist. 

Follow on Twitter: @DEYURRE

THE YOUTHFUL INSANITY, A SCOURGE THAT PLAGUES US

Published by El Nuevo Herald on July 01, 2015

"My 21 year old son has mental disorders and drug addiction. He refuses to receive medical treatment and claims that they can not force him for being an adult. "  How many times have we heard dark stories like this narrated by parents powerless against the disturbing reality?

 

And what happens is really important.  The adults can not be forced to take medical treatment, including therapy, unless they are held in prison or supervised by the court.

 

And usually, when deprived of liberty or conditional it is because they have observed misconduct, framed in illegal and often criminal nature. In other words, most of the time we have to wait for an adult to upset comet crazy to force him to get proper medical treatment.  That is, there is no prevention in this matter.

 

Recently, a young man of 21 years killed nine black people in a Methodist Church located in Charleston, South Carolina.  Besides this bloody deed is considered a hate crime interlaced with strong religious beliefs, he points out the obvious truth that only a madman is capable of committing such barbarism;  killing nine people of any race, in any church or anywhere, is an act of insanity manifested.

And this young man of 21, was known for his strange behavior and drug hobby.  Probably, now the courts will decide he is mentally unstable and therefore should receive medical treatment.

 

And what they say to the families of the deceased?  Nothing, just  a lunatic appeared in place and wrong time and unfortunately these things happen.

 

In December 2012, another disturbed young man of 20 years, killed 20 children aged between five and ten years in a primary school in Newtown, Connecticut.

 

 In April 2007, a psychopath of 23 killed 32 people at Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia Tech.

 In April 1999, two depressive young of 18 and 17, killed 15 people at Columbine High School, Littleton, Colorado.

 

These are just four cases that reached national notoriety.  In all of them mental imbalance was protagonist, accompanied by the fondness for video games and drugs. In each case it has revived the need to strengthen the permits and establish mandatory psychiatric examinations to become licensed to carry firearms.

Yet despite the importance of all considerations, we see as the more serious the fact that in the US there are no public asylums; The last known was the St. Elizabeth Hospital in Washington DC.

 

In Miami-Dade's largest mental health center is the county jail occupied by these patients on 1.200 beds (see our article in the Miami Herald, December 28, 2012).

 

Although in public psychiatry is difficult to differentiate the madness of drug addiction or homeless, we believe it is priority address the issue within the health budget, without thinking that this will affect US economic growth.  Unlike, for example, from 2000 to 2010, we see how Sweden, which has a general health care, according to the World Bank, grew faster than the US, a 2.31% annually, compared with 1.85% in the same period.

 

Finally, for those who have adult children with mental problems, perhaps an unaware option is that they can go to court, with or without the accused, in order to obtain temporary custody ordered by a judge.

 

Under this parameter, you have better control over an irrational behavior.

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Economist and Journalist

CORPORATE MERGERS: CREATE WEALTH OR UNEMPLOYMENT ?

Published by El Nuevo Herald on June 07, 2015

Corporate mergers certainly create wealth.  And the amount of such transactions is such that this year have come together exceed ten economies of Latin America.  The downside of these mergers is generating unemployment.

Between January and May 2015, 10 mergers or acquisitions totaling $ 379 billion were agreed. The gross domestic product of all Central America reached $ 333 billion for the same period.

One of the most talked about mergers was the purchase of Kraft Foods by HJ Heinz, worth $ 45 billion.  By the way, HJ Heinz was previously acquired in 2013 by the famous mega millionaire Warren Buffett, who in turn is a major shareholder in companies such as Wells Fargo, Chase, Citibank, Visa, American Express, Geico, etc.  Buying on that occasion was for $ 28 billion.

And as in any merger, the latter caused many layoffs.  For example, in November 2013, HJ Heinz closed its plant in Pocatello, Idaho, directly affecting about 400 employees.

 

The dismissed staff required immediate assistance, particularly in the area of ​​training and finding new jobs.

In this regard, the Government, through the Department of Labor has approved emergency aid for $ 1.600 million.

Large corporations have been fusing increasingly through the years.  And those mergers encompass all areas of business.

For example, in the area of ​​aviation, the agreement between American Airlines and US Airways in 2013 for $ 13 billion exceeded the previous between United and Delta.  In each case the unemployed were more than 10,000 people.

At the technological level, Microsoft bought Nokia for $ 7.000 million.

 

At journalistic level, Jeff Bezos, Amazon, bought The Washington Post for $ 250 million, a real bargain.

Previously bank mergers were famous: Chase-Chemical Bank for $ 10,000 million, Citicorp-Travelers for $ 70.000 million and Nations Bank-Bank of the Americas for $ 60,000 million.

 

At energy level, the merger Exxon-Mobil for $ 77.000 million was famous.  So it was at automotive level the Chrysler-Benz for $ 130 billion, at laboratories level Glaxo-Smith Kline for $ 150 billion, and in the media, AOL-Time Warner for $ 150 billion.

 

These mergers not only result in thousands of layoffs, in addition, sometimes the public service deteriorates.

For example, previously, the telephone customer service at AT & T was quick and courteous.  After that company merged with TCI (now Comcast), BellSouth and Yahoo.  In this gigantic conglomerate physically it has difficulty serving 300 million customers.  That is why the call is an automatic litany finally treated in other countries.

 

Of course, mergers are generally creating corporate wealth as they encourage investors to buy newly issued shares on the stock, whose price starts to be quoted higher and higher by increased demand.

 

This, in turn, becomes higher dividends to shareholders at the end of each fiscal year.

 

For the corporation are also positive cost reduction, increased sales and greater efficiency.  The problem is that often the company that buys acquired the habits and norms of the other, that is, lower wages and benefits for its employees.

 

In practice just it happens that employees are terrified when they start to hear drums merger.

 

In continental Europe there is an explicit legislation limiting job losses after an extraterritorial merger.  In the US and the UK there is no legislation.

 

It is time to assume our the role, defending the employment in our country as true support of the society in which we live that also is a bastion of democracy in the world.

 

We have to legislate in this regard.

 

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE 

Economist and journalist.

 

US BANKS vs CHINESE BANKS

 

Published by El Nuevo Herald on May 17, 2015

Certainly, China has clear economic advantages over the US and the rest of the world.  Besides of the Chinese strategy of keeping its currency artificially undervalued to promote exports, the other strategy, not least, is to continue to increase its banking presence in the world in order to expand their operations, while weakening the already battered US dollar.

 

The Chinese bank ICBC is considered the world's largest  in terms of market value and profitability. . With a market capitalization of $ 254 000 million, it exceeded in 2007 to Citigroup.  It maintains more than 18,000 stalls and 106 branches in other countries, with 150 million customers.  It has significant presence in Spain and Argentina, with 103 branches and 1,000,000 customers in the South American country since 2012.

 

Another Chinese bank, Bank of China, who is not a central bank, has a license to print money in Hong Kong and Macao.

 

The CCB Bank, one of the four largest in China, with more than 250,000 employees, has branches throughout Europe and New York.  Belonging to the global ATM alliance, customers can make ATM withdrawals virtually worldwide.

 

The Bank of the People's Republic of China, East West Bank, is domiciled in Los Angeles and is particularly active in California and in major Chinese cities.

 

China Minsheng Bank was the first private bank that opened in China. This bank, which is listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, was founded by an enterprising businesswoman, who also founded the first law firm and the first accounting office in that country.

 

China continues its banking expansion plan in all aspects.  Last year five new private banks opened in China, and 11 Chinese and 20 foreign banks were registered in the Free Trade Zone of Shanghai, where the bank regulators have granted more autonomy to institutions. For example, there is avoiding meeting Chinese rule requiring banks to lend only up to 75% of bank deposits.

 

 

However, outside the free trade zone, bank requirements are more stringent, especially for foreign banks, which as a result only have a 1.7% share of that market.

 

In 2013, China increased the minimum capital requirement for a foreign bank to operate in the country.  The increase amounted from 300 million yuan (renminbi) to 1,000 million.  Similarly, China sets a limit for foreign shareholders in domestic banks: 25% for the total shares and 20% if a single investor.

 

Moreover, Chinese regulators require foreign banks a representative office two years before opening a branch in China, which could make only one at a time, when a new branch.

 

With so many requirements, foreign banks end up with a lower return on assets that Chinese banks, that is, 0.6% vs. 1.3% in 2013.

 

Opening an account in a Chinese bank is easy.  Only require a passport, proof of residence of the local police station, a phone number and three yuan as a deposit.  You may receive transfers from abroad.

 

In the US, banks have many regulations that hinder lending, and barely survive charging for check cashing services or debit card using another network.

 

The Chinese, however, only have many regulations for foreign banks, something which US hasn't to foreign banks, in other words, it is easier to Chinese opening a bank in the US than Americans opening a bank in China.

 

Because of the Chinese economy is decreasing in recent years, this country is already taking steps.  Last month announced three new free trade zones. In this month they reduced again  interest rates at 0.25%, something they have done three times in the last six months.

 

Currently in more than 70 countries, more than 900 financial institutions are doing business using the yuan, according to SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication)

 

It is projected that by 2020, trade with Asia will be 60% of the world market. Of course, a slowdown in Chinese credit could reduce demand in that country, which certainly would bring down the price of many raw materials.

 

But the question is: what measures might be taken to maintain US global hegemony of the dollar?   Certainly, there are many, but time is short and you have to make decisions now.

 

As long as the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) does not involve China, this would be a good start for 2016.

 

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE

Economist and Journalist.

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THE TRANSPACIFIC AGREEMENT: SLOW CHINA'S GROWTH ?

 

Published by El Nuevo Herald on April 09, 2015

 

 

 

Since 2005 we have been working on this gigantic multinational secret agreement, which handled 40% of world production and includes, so far, 12 countries.  

United States and Japan are two major economies signatories of the agreement.  For Latin America are Chile, Peru and Mexico.  Among the countries that have shown interest are Colombia and China.

 

This partnership agreement is to stimulate investment, production and trade among member countries, benefiting significantly those developing.  

 

Recently, I participated in conference call with David Simas, strategic advisor at the White House on the subject.  There is pointed out that in light of the transpacific agreement, is a priority for the United States to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which Mexico is also a signatory.

Furthermore, it was emphasized that labor and environmental rules must be really consistent for all countries.

Finally, Simas stressed that this agreement is beneficial for the United States since 98% of our exports are carried out by small firms, which encourages diversity of production and creates jobs.

 

 

From the  transpacific agreement have been known, until now, the following principal details:

1. You have to reach an agreement that benefits members, optimizing their profits.  For example, in the case of Japan, a reduction in import tariffs on automotive will hurt our domestic industry.  In return, cheap agricultural products exported to Japan will damage their industry.

 

2. With respect to intellectual property, the agreement would extend the validity of international patents, including medicines, surgical procedures and rights to movies.  While acknowledging that "piracy" is a scourge plaguing investors, in the case of medicine many countries, generic manufacturers, would be affected to extend the validity of the original patent. Consequently, medicines would be increasingly expensive, something that certainly affects health. 

 

On this, the Nobel Economist Paul Krugman says, "If pharmaceutical companies raise their prices in developing countries, does this action will benefit US workers ? Probably not much. "

 

 The intellectual property agreement incorporates the owner's authorization to import from an online platform.

 

It also includes the controversial proposal that companies can sue governments to introduce new laws that harm their business.  Furthermore, US manufacturers want to reduce regulation in genetically modified products and in pesticides and additives.

 

Returning to China, it is no secret that the United States needs to be grounded as the superpower that is, countering growing Chinese influence. That's geopolitics.

 

For example, recently the Asian Infrastructure Investment (AIIb), which is a multilateral organization led by China, was created. Although the United States tried to convince closest allies did not join that group, several of them have become founding shareholders of the development bank, which, as suspected, will have enormous resources to finance the regions of their choice.

 

Many have not realized this: while American manufacturers stay with their brands and designs, the Chinese are left with the production.  In fact what they do is accelerating the dismantling of the few Western industrial parks. Later, when reviving factories will be unattainable, raising production costs will be for real and thus the Chinese hegemony.

 

If we add to this that the Chinese kept artificially devalued its currency to boost their exports, we can say that if the United States fails to take firm and decisive actions in the short term, the collapse of the dollar as the global benchmark will not wait and thus an economic crisis of unknown magnitude for humanity.

 

Finally, what is sought with the TPP is the individual development of each country. So, countries need to export manufactured products only in their countries, not in China.

Main and powerful reason for China not being part of the TPP. 

 

We must not allow China to enter the TPP !!!!

 

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE 

Economist and journalist.

 

DEMOCRATS WILL REPEAT IN 2016 ?

Published by El Nuevo Herald on February 12, 2016

 

Obviously, the immediate and logical answer  is related to the historical aspect; few times a US political party repeated for the third time in office.

 

Indeed, the longest period of party rule corresponds to the Democrats, who retained the presidency for twenty years, from 1933-1953 (Roosevelt-Truman).

 

And interestingly, twenty years ago that a political party also does not repeat for the third time since Republican George Bush became president after the incumbent Ronald Reagan.

 

However, while Democrats lost the elections last year, there is an important sector in the party that believes this fact is irrelevant since they also lost the midterm elections in 2010 and even then, Obama was reelected in 2012.

 

There are two extremely important factors in that scheme qualifying as wrong that view:

1. When Democrats lost the midterm elections in 2010, Obama was going for reelection, suggesting a great advantage. It's not the same aspiring first time that seeking reelection.

 

2. Although Democrats lost the midterm elections in 2010, continued to control the Senate.  Now the dominion is total by Republicans in both chambers.

 

These two factors play an important role in the political landscape in the short term. Additionally, there are other trends that seem to reinforce these factors. They are:

1. The tendency of a bipartisan coalition, in which the applicant party (Republican) increasingly does not show support for certain proposals made by such coalition.

 

2. The tendency of the ruling party (Democrat) to lose seats in Congress.

 

Of course, the most obvious logic is also present: the longer it remains in power, more voters find reasons to blame President and consider, therefore, give a chance to the opponent.

 

Moreover, it is known that the Democrats will inherit 23 well-competitive states, of which 19 were won by Obama.  Could it happen that the black vote diminish their support for the Democratic Party, if the candidate of that party were a person of the white race, for example, Hillary Clinton?

 

It seems that the black vote will remain Democrat background, although this time may be less than when Obama won.

 

It is also assumed that Hispanics and Asians continue voting for the Democrats, although this may be debatable.  For example, it was observed that more Hispanics supported George W. Bush in 2004 that Mitt Romney in 2012.

 

When Obama assumed the presidency in 2009, the fiscal deficit, unemployment and consumer confidence were the characteristic features of the economy at the time.  Currently, all these variables have significantly decreased.  Even the Dow Jones recently achieved its highest score since it was created, which implies an increase in investor confidence and theoretically, greater job creation.

Many still criticize it, but Obamacare is an undeniable milestone, comparable in time to Social Security and Medicare.

 

Although history favors a Republican victory in 2016, the Democratic point of view suggests that the historical rules are made to be changed, considering that history does not always mean the same destination.

 

For example, Barack Obama was elected the first black president. And Hillary Clinton may well be elected as the first female president of the United States of America, why not?

 

BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE 

Economist and journalist.

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ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN CUBA

 

Published by El Nuevo Herald on January 20, 2015

 

 

It is very hard for the Cuban regime surviving longer paying poverty wages, as happened in Russia when its collapse made its own popular adage: "They pretended to pay us and we pretended we were working."

 Every time the US has restored trade relations with any country, usually does increase its gross domestic product (GDP).

•  In Japan, between 1946 and 1949 inflation reached 1000%.  However, he managed a boom in growth, from 6.2% in 1956 to 13.1% in 1960.
•  China rose from Asiatic mode of production to achieve a long stable period with a growth of 9.5% annually.
• Vietnam, despite having few major export items, managed to reach a 6.8% annual growth after resuming relations with the US.

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Official figures from the Cuban communist regime reflect the country grew by just 2.7% between 2009 and 2013, and the "private" employment increased from 17% to 26.3% over the same period.  It would be interesting to know if these "jobs" are illegal or protected by the system.

In any case and in light of the new US-Cuba relations, there are some steps that should be implemented to ensure that these relationships work effectively:

 

▪ The scheme must fully restore property rights, issuing new securities, registers and cadastres.

▪ US banks should have correspondent accounts with Cuban banks, in order to use debit and / or credit in the country.

▪ Banks Cubans and Americans should be able to open bilateral letters of credit, essential to handle foreign trade.

▪ Now in Cuba , the Cuban convertible currency and Cuban normal currency are simultaneously accepted.  It should also be accepted alongside the dollar, which undoubtedly will circulate widely.

▪ US companies expropriated by the government without compensation, must give up claims. If not, it'll encroach relations when Cuban ships or aircraft touchAmerican soil as they may be subject to legal disputes.

The fact that the United States resumed trade with Cuba does not mean supporting the regime. Rather indicates that improve the living conditions of impoverished Cuba, who has had those conditions in the last 56 years.

What enrich the regime and this consequently further repress its people?  Undoubtedly, it is an economic benefit to the regime;  however, this can no longer repress his people more than previously done.

On the contrary, for improving the conditions of its inhabitants, immigration to the US will decrease.  Cuban's natural ability for businesses will increase private property, thus undermining the pyramidal base supporting the communist ideology itself.

China and Vietnam have grown economically but continue to repress their people. Cuba also will grow, but for how long remain its communism?  The Asian and Cuban idiosyncrasies are very different.

In communist Cuba have always been two classes: the leaders and others. Now, after a short time, there will be more classes and thus be in conflict.

 

In theory, the creation of political parties and a flood of technology, eventually will bringing down the system.

 

Economist and journalist.