Published by El Nuevo Herald on February 12, 2016
Obviously, the immediate and logical answer is related to the historical aspect; few times a US political party repeated for the third time in office.
Indeed, the longest period of party rule corresponds to the Democrats, who retained the presidency for twenty years, from 1933-1953 (Roosevelt-Truman).
And interestingly, twenty years ago that a political party also does not repeat for the third time since Republican George Bush became president after the incumbent Ronald Reagan.
However, while Democrats lost the elections last year, there is an important sector in the party that believes this fact is irrelevant since they also lost the midterm elections in 2010 and even then, Obama was reelected in 2012.
1. When Democrats lost the midterm elections in 2010, Obama was going for reelection, suggesting a great advantage. It's not the same aspiring first time that seeking reelection.
2. Although Democrats lost the midterm elections in 2010, continued to control the Senate. Now the dominion is total by Republicans in both chambers.
These two factors play an important role in the political landscape in the short term. Additionally, there are other trends that seem to reinforce these factors. They are:
1. The tendency of a bipartisan coalition, in which the applicant party (Republican) increasingly does not show support for certain proposals made by such coalition.
Of course, the most obvious logic is also present: the longer it remains in power, more voters find reasons to blame President and consider, therefore, give a chance to the opponent.
Moreover, it is known that the Democrats will inherit 23 well-competitive states, of which 19 were won by Obama. Could it happen that the black vote diminish their support for the Democratic Party, if the candidate of that party were a person of the white race, for example, Hillary Clinton?
It seems that the black vote will remain Democrat background, although this time may be less than when Obama won.
It is also assumed that Hispanics and Asians continue voting for the Democrats, although this may be debatable. For example, it was observed that more Hispanics supported George W. Bush in 2004 that Mitt Romney in 2012.
When Obama assumed the presidency in 2009, the fiscal deficit, unemployment and consumer confidence were the characteristic features of the economy at the time. Currently, all these variables have significantly decreased. Even the Dow Jones recently achieved its highest score since it was created, which implies an increase in investor confidence and theoretically, greater job creation.
Many still criticize it, but Obamacare is an undeniable milestone, comparable in time to Social Security and Medicare.
Although history favors a Republican victory in 2016, the Democratic point of view suggests that the historical rules are made to be changed, considering that history does not always mean the same destination.
For example, Barack Obama was elected the first black president. And Hillary Clinton may well be elected as the first female president of the United States of America, why not?
BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Economist and journalist.
