Published by El Nuevo Herald on January 20, 2015
It is very hard for the Cuban regime surviving longer paying poverty wages, as happened in Russia when its collapse made its own popular adage: "They pretended to pay us and we pretended we were working."
Every time the US has restored trade relations with any country, usually does increase its gross domestic product (GDP).
- In Japan, between 1946 and 1949 inflation reached 1000%. However, he managed a boom in growth, from 6.2% in 1956 to 13.1% in 1960.
- China rose from Asiatic mode of production to achieve a long stable period with a growth of 9.5% annually.
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Official figures from the Cuban communist regime reflect the country grew by just 2.7% between 2009 and 2013, and the "private" employment increased from 17% to 26.3% over the same period. It would be interesting to know if these "jobs" are illegal or protected by the system.
In any case and in light of the new US-Cuba relations, there are some steps that should be implemented to ensure that these relationships work effectively:
▪ The scheme must fully restore property rights, issuing new securities, registers and cadastres.
▪ US banks should have correspondent accounts with Cuban banks, in order to use debit and / or credit in the country.
▪ Banks Cubans and Americans should be able to open bilateral letters of credit, essential to handle foreign trade.
▪ Now in Cuba , the Cuban convertible currency and Cuban normal currency are simultaneously accepted. It should also be accepted alongside the dollar, which undoubtedly will circulate widely.
▪ US companies expropriated by the government without compensation, must give up claims. If not, it'll encroach relations when Cuban ships or aircraft touchAmerican soil as they may be subject to legal disputes.
The fact that the United States resumed trade with Cuba does not mean supporting the regime. Rather indicates that improve the living conditions of impoverished Cuba, who has had those conditions in the last 56 years.
What enrich the regime and this consequently further repress its people? Undoubtedly, it is an economic benefit to the regime; however, this can no longer repress his people more than previously done.
On the contrary, for improving the conditions of its inhabitants, immigration to the US will decrease. Cuban's natural ability for businesses will increase private property, thus undermining the pyramidal base supporting the communist ideology itself.
China and Vietnam have grown economically but continue to repress their people. Cuba also will grow, but for how long remain its communism? The Asian and Cuban idiosyncrasies are very different.
In communist Cuba have always been two classes: the leaders and others. Now, after a short time, there will be more classes and thus be in conflict.
In theory, the creation of political parties and a flood of technology, eventually will bringing down the system.
Economist and journalist.
