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Monday, March 12, 2012

THE BANKING CRISIS

Published in El Nuevo Herald on March 02, 2012



Among the major problems affecting the world economy is the performance of banks. Closely linked to the activities of a capitalist market, the banking sector, in both U.S. and Europe, has been undermined  its volume of operations, mainly in their ability to lend.
For a long period of moderation, 1985-2006, banks profits were coming  expressed by the difference between their lending and deposit rates. That is, banks charge higher interest on loans they grant, that by having to pay interest to savers for the money they place in them. Since banks have greatly reduced its loan portfolio in the U.S., they have had to propose innovative ways to generate revenue, such as a $ 6.00 fee for people, no customers, who  redeem a check in their offices.
They have also increased the discounts for using debit cards to other networks unaffiliated to the issuer bank.
Banks typically use a significant portion of public deposits to generate income. Regularly, they placed those funds in the capital market to earn higher interest rates in the short term. They also make other investments in diverse businesses such as real estate. Perhaps the most decisive factor in this current financial crisis is that banks have increased too much its assets  while its capital has remained virtually unchanged. In other words, banks have continued to use public money to acquire more and more properties. And this exponential increase of their assets has been to satisfy the appetite of its shareholders, who naturally seek a greater return on their investment. Now, why is so important that banks increase their capital too? Because if there is a drop in the capital market, the bank would have resources to absorb that loss without investors and savers are affected, even though the existence of deposit insurance protection, which is very
limited.
Banks regularly, when they have many assets, they make bond issues secured or guaranteed by other assets. These bonds raise funds from the public but commit the bank issuing such bond, who have to pay the face value of this document at its due date. In 2007, the rating agency Standard and Poor's and Moody's awarded the highest category (AAA) to many bond issues considered as Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). With this high rating, which virtually guaranteed the payment of these bonds at maturity, investors turned to the market by purchasing the bonds that turned out to be mostly a fiasco because the guarantees they had, were more than 50% mortgages finishing in foreclosure. This is part of the famous "toxic debt" held by banks and perhaps the main reason that drove the economic crisis, that also could be called the biggest mistake known in economic history. To compensate for this error, it can be argued that it was difficult to predict the collapse of the real estate market.
However, one could also say that all bubbles burst, and this was a housing bubble.
The current crisis has many sides and in it the role of banks is essential. Recently the Obama administration reached an agreement for $ 25,000 million with the Banking Association through which, the most important banks holding mortgages, provide loan modifications to customers whose debts exceed the present value of their homes. Many questions will arise concerning unemployment, income or credit history. However, decisions must be made to prevent the collapse of the economy. The Government is trying to create jobs in U.S. instead of in China. It is trying to be more benevolent or modify the Credit Bureaus. The trading is becoming more transparent.
The banks in turn are limiting salaries and juicy bonuses to their executives to be thus higher dividends from its shares.
Even facing this crisis, with medium-term solutions, banks and financial system will do well, by overcoming market failures, but emphasizing once again that the best known system is Capitalism, where toughness and interest are the gear
that moves the machinery generating productive jobs and prosperity.


BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Economist and Journalist

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

MORTGAGES TO 80 YEARS TERM ?


Published in El Nuevo Herald on February 03, 2012




The risk rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's continue to point a steady decline in the value of single family houses. Using the Case-Shiller index are predicting a scandalous fall to 12% for southern Florida in 2012. Although real estate agents say the area has been showing a slight increase due to the presence of international buyers, the truth is we have  to look for a solution to this problem while it encourages the construction sector, which is known as the ultimate creator of employment and thus one of the most dynamic element of economy. In this perspective, the idea of ​​implementing a mortagage inherited program, does not seem outlandish .
In Switzerland there are mortgages financing up to 100 years later. In Spain many mortgages are reaching age 90. In the UK you can transfer the mortgage payment from father to son.
This type of inherited mortgage carries a number of benefits; solve the housing crisis for young couples and recent graduates who often stay at home mother for lack of resources. Would combat the rentier economy by facilitating the acquisition of the property. Would encourage insurance companies that would issue policies in cases of loss of income and / or employment. Broaden the participation of lawyers, who would develop trust documents and contracts to ensure the inheritance of property and debts to the descendants. Require banks and other lending institutions re-launched its portfolio of loans and reactivate its grant of loans to individuals. Reduce legal and ilegal unemployment.
From the bank standpoint the interest rates should be variable. It is illogical to think that a loan can be granted to 80 year term with a fixed rate. The monthly payment for a debt of $ 100,000 at 4% in 30 years is $ 477. In 80 years would be $ 348. It would seem foolish not to pay $ 129 monthly instead of having to pay 50 years more of interest. This is offset by three special payments (balloon payments) at $ 20,000 each, one per generation. Thus, the amount financed to 80 years would now be a monthly payment of about $ 139, regardless of the fluctuation of a variable interest. Who does not acquire a house like this?
Currently, the cost of any rent is $ 1,200 a month. With an income of $ 2.000 the rent represents 60% of revenue, which is certainly indicative of a crisis. This idea of ​​hereditary mortgage is a smart solution. The absence of a down payment would make the adoption of such a program requires a special regulation: is for people who marry for the first and only time. This would prevent unscrupulous traders repeatedly able to divorce.Many may ask, my children will have a debt? Yes, however, is he not born with a debt now and have nothing? Better that at birth, have a guaranteed housing.
BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Miami

Monday, January 30, 2012

THE RE-ELECTION OF PRESIDENT


Published in El Nuevo Herald on January 27, 2012

Prior to the election of President Obama, the previous four periods in the United States have been characterized by a re-election of incumbent president. In the case of Bill Clinton, the explosion of online technology catapulted the largest economic expansion in U.S. history. George W. Bush, having to face an unprecedented domestic terrorism, aroused the patriotism of Americans. Now President Obama, having inherited a country at war and mortgaged  has had to take measures unpopular in corporate sectors, but necessary for the purposes of safeguarding our economic model as we know it today.
These measures have a strong drag on the majority of the electorate, as they involve proposals to create jobs, guarantee insurance, fair treatment of immigrants and a special outreach to Hispanics. These are all trump cards for a second presidential term and differ substantially from the Republican offerings, represented by the Tea Party.
Particularly among Hispanics, the Democratic Party is conducting a centrist work, which stresses that the proposals and measures taken are not left-wing and have nothing to do whatsoever with absurd  communist theories, as many politicians want to show with purpose to discredit the Democrats.
On July 21, 2010, President Obama signed into law reform known as Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection. This law simply regulate the manner in which operators of the stock market and consumers interact with other investment banks. In other words, the public offering of shares and other securities will now be more transparent and accessible to the general public.
On October 19, 2010, President Obama signed the executive order called White House Initiative on Educational Excellence for Hispanics. Through this act has been carried out across the country a series of round tables where each  Hispanic community's leaders meet with the principal directors of the White House to present cases and proposals on employment, health, insurance, mortgages, etc.. Undoubtedly this is a great approach to the Hispanic community.
In the last census, it was established that Hispanic small businesses employed 25% more workers than in the previous census. President Obama maintains a plan to help grow even more rapidly, to 250,000 Hispanic firms. This includes training and summer jobs for young people entering the labor market. 
Among other important measures and plans, President Obama is calling for the enactment of legislation that would make it illegal to refuse to hire job applicants just because they have some time unemployed.
The policy of laissez-faire is no longer a valid option. Now the economy can not self-adjust mainly because most actors only carry out orders issued in the market, ie prices and conditions must be accepted even if they lack income.

This is why the measures being taken by President Obama are not only necessary at this historical moment but also that the electorate is expected. Then, the trend in previous elections will continue. We headed for a re-election of President Obama.
BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
Miami

IS THE DOLLAR FALLING BEHIND ?


Published in El Nuevo Herald on January 13, 2012

The Peterson Institute for International Economics recently estimated at 24% devaluation of the yuan against the dollar. Because in recent months was recovered by 4%, on December 27, 2011, the Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, has decided not to designate China a "currency manipulator". Instead it has decided to keep the pressure on China in international forums as the Group of 20 leading nations and the International Monetary Fund. As a campaign platform, Republican Mitt Romney says it will bring this case before the World Trade Organization.
China, meanwhile, and perhaps as a reaction to this pressure, recently made a pact with Japan and Thailand for trade without the presence of the U.S. dollar. Clearly, China is trying to start promoting the yuan in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), thus establishing free trade zones. The exchange between China and Japan was $ 340.000 million last year, so that an agreement of this magnitude makes it the largest ever made. However, this figure languishes before the three domestic financial aid packages awarded by the U.S. government for more than $ 700.000 million each. This comparison allows us to appreciate the gigantism of the great American Union.
This important agreement without the intervention of the dollar, has yet to be implemented. In particular, banks have to open their build process of Credit Letters with yuan designation to be used in international trade. Up until now, the transactions in Yuans have been made in Hong Kong mainly. The U.S. trade deficit with China was $ 273.000 million last year. When this deal, China-Japan-Thailand is in full swing, you can expect a revaluation of the Yuan, which was far away from the financial turmoil caused by the crisis since 2008. If so, will trigger the interest rates and with it the prices of all Chinese products.
Major U.S. brands dominate the Chinese market, 350 Walmart stores, 400 McDonalds, hospital equipment are primarily GE and Boeing commands the civil aviation. Is estimated at over $ 100.000 million annual profit accruing to U.S. corporations in China, but the biggest problem facing America is the lack of jobs caused precisely by the absence of these and other businesses on U.S. soil.
 
Large financial capitals are managed primarily in New York, London and Frankfurt-Munich axis Berlin. This enormous treated China-Japan-Thailand, it create a new world economic order? Will it leave the dollar to exercise its hegemonic role in international trade? Major changes can be made in the medium run. What is a disturbing reality is that the U.S. must urgently take steps to safeguard our system. And these measures can be unrewarding for many.
BENJAMIN F DeYURRE
Miami


Saturday, January 28, 2012

PROS AND CONS OF MEGA CASINOS IN MIAMI


Published in El Nuevo Herald on December 11, 2011

Many comments are around the project for a mega casino in the city of Miami. So,  in order you can be more objective, below outlines what we believe are the truths and falsehoods to the issues raised.
-It is true that the casino has recruited a distinguished former congressman to represent them in government negotiations. Undoubtedly, this adds an additional advantage in any negotiation.

-It is true that the revenues generated by these casinos are not reinvested in the city, county or state. Could be achieved to secure legislation in 20% of the net profit the amount to be reinvested in the community. This would be in business investment that will generate direct employment, other than the game.
-It is true that the dealer authorization for a mega casino will make legally inevitable appearance of the like.
-It is true that a flood of casinos will dethrone the former desert of Vegas as the Mecca of the international game.
-It is true that Miami was not conceived as Vegas and therefore its infrastructure would not support an enormous motor traffic.
-It is true that thousands of jobs will be created that  logically doesn't  exist right now.
-It is true that state revenues will be increased significantly.
-It is not true that Miami would become a major tourist destination. It already is.
-It is not true that the game generates more economic activity. On the contrary, small businesses will disappear and with them the small entrepreneur.
-It is not true that this mega casino can be approved without a final submission to an electoral vote.


    BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE

      Tuesday, October 25, 2011

      JOB CREATION & DEVALUATION



      Published in El Nuevo Herald on October 23, 2011

      Among the various mechanisms that can be chosen to stimulate job creation in the U.S., perhaps the most important is the increase in tariffs for manufactured goods in China. Since then, the measure faces a formidable obstacle: more than 95% of these factories are owned by U.S. citizens and, obviously, they will oppose such a measure even if survival is at stake in the country
      .
      In recent years there has been discussion in Congress that several countries, especially China, deliberately manipulating its currency to keep it undervalued. This deceptive practice makes it stimulates the import of Chinese products.

      With a fierce Republican opposition in Congress, has tried to pass a law criminalizing the artificial devaluation. Specifically, Rep. John Boehner, Speaker of the House, said "this legislation exceeds Congress's role and is extremely dangerous." In response, the Democrat Charles Schumer argued: "There is nothing more important for Congress to defend American jobs." The law ended up happening with 225 votes, of which only 61 were Republicans.

      On October 4, Sen. Charles Schumer, Democrat of Brooklyn, introduced the bill Currency Exchange Rate Oversight The Reform Act, which among its proposals are: if a nation is accused of keeping its currency undervalued and not set in a period of three months, the tariffs will be increased; prohibits federal procurement of goods and services to those nations; prohibits the Trade Promotion Agency of the United States invest in those countries.

      Indeed, if import tariffs significantly increase, you can redefine the domestic manufacturing lead to an increase in employment. We would combat primary labor cost with immigrant labor, which would be compensated by the figure of bonds in lieu of regular wages while processed American citizenship. In this way, we would  face two serious problems: unemployment and illegal immigration. At least it's something we can do.
       






      BENJAMIN F DeYURRE
      Miami

      Thursday, October 6, 2011

      LUCRATIVE BUSINESS

                                                         
                      PUBLISHED IN EL NUEVO HERALD OF MIAMI ON SEPTEMBER 14, 2011

      The late fees and reconnection fees are no longer fair warning to consumers and have become a lucrative business. The costs of delay in payments and reconnections are very high, sometimes 30% of the value of service. The question that arises is: What bank charges interest of 30% financing?

      What is the cost generated by this reconnection?  We believe that late fees should be collected only by banks or credit cards, and reconnection fees should reflect the same interest rate prevailing in the market, otherwise business would remain a very speculative indeed.

      It is common to notice a marked sacrifice in the face of consumers when they line up to pay the reconnection and the high costs of basic services and cell phone, which often is the only means of communication they have and this should be also considered a basic service.

      Many monopolic companies have merged and created centers of power to impose prices and conditions at will while hiring influential political lobbies to set the standard of "deaf ear" to many complaints. In addition, the most feasible way of communicating with these companies is phone to make a purchase.  If the call is for other reasons, hardly communication is achieved.

      We believe in free enterprise and Democracy, so we a make public call to politicians with real vocation of service to regulate the costs associated with delays in payments and reconnections, especially now in rampant unemployment and economic crisis in full effect.

      BENJAMIN F. DeYURRE
      Miami